At 9:45 am (Brasilia time) this Tuesday (2), the July wheat contract traded on Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) It was registering losses of 4.50 points and 0.74%, quoted at US$ cents 604.25/bushel. Kansas City Bank Exchange (KCBT)The grain fell 9.00 points and 1.39%, to US$ cents 638.00/bushel. On the previous day (1st), the cereal futures fell 0.29% in CBOT and 0.42% in KCBT, quoted at 608.75/bushel and 647.00/bushel, respectively. This morning, the market was reacting to the new crop monitoring data released by United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)According to the agency, 87% of winter wheat crops have already reached the heading stage, a weekly increase of nine percentage points. At the same time last year, the rate was 83%, while the five-year average is 79%. Despite the progress in crop development, only 26% of the areas were classified as good or excellent, a stable percentage compared to the previous week, but much lower than the 52% observed in the same period of the last harvest. In the case of spring wheat, planting reached 94% of the planned area, above the historical average of 89% and in line with what was recorded a year ago. Furthermore, 72% of the crops have already emerged, exceeding the five-year average of 67%. The winter wheat harvest has also begun to gain momentum, reaching 5% of the cultivated area, above the 3% recorded in the same period last year. In terms of weather, investors are monitoring the rainfall recorded in Kansas, the main wheat-producing state in the USA. According to the Kansas Mesonet meteorological tool, linked to Kansas State University, rainfall totals reached 0.7 inches in the southwest of the state and almost 1.4 inches in areas of the Midwest. Internationally, the Ukrainian grain traders association raised its projection for grain and oilseed production in 2026 to 83.6 million tons, compared to an estimated 80 million tons for 2025. Export potential was projected at 50.8 million tons. Meanwhile, in Australia, rainfall in recent weeks has favored the advancement of late wheat planting in areas previously affected by drought. However, producers remain attentive to the possibility of an El Niño-related weather pattern in the coming months, which could limit the productive potential of the next harvest.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.