USDA raises estimate for Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop to 138 million tons.

THE United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) The USDA released its June supply and demand report (WASDE) on Thursday (11), the second with projections for the 2026/27 crop year in the United States, but without major changes compared to last month's publication. It is worth noting that these initial estimates are based solely on calculations that use the intended planting area – released on March 31 – and an average of productivity from recent years. In other words, there is still no field data from the USDA – the first survey based on field research will only be released in August.

Soy

The USDA continues to project that U.S. producers will harvest 120.70 million tons of soybeans in the 2026/27 crop year, a 4% annual increase compared to the 115.99 million tons produced in 2025/26 and the second-highest volume in the historical series, behind only the 2021/22 crop year (121.50 million tons). U.S. stocks, on the other hand, are expected to fall from 9.25 million tons at the end of the 2025/26 crop year to 8.44 million tons at the end of 2026/27, both estimates maintained from the May report. Globally, soybean production is expected to rise from 429.20 million tons in the old crop year to 441.34 million tons in the new crop year. The previous report projected 427.60 and 441.54 million tons, respectively. Global soybean stocks are projected at 124.88 million tons at the end of the 2026/27 season (an increase of 100,000 tons), compared to 125.52 million tons at the end of 2025/26 (a revised figure from 125.13 million tons in the previous report).

Soybean production in Brazil and Argentina

Regarding the 2025/26 soybean crop, the USDA maintained its projection for Brazilian production at 180 million tons and increased its estimate for Argentina by 2 million tons, to 50 million tons. For 2026/27, the agency continues to estimate production for the two countries at 186.00 and 50.00 million tons, respectively.

Corn

As expected, the USDA maintained its estimate for the 2026/27 US corn crop at 406.29 million tons, a 6% decrease compared to the record 432.34 million tons harvested in the 2025/26 cycle and the second-highest volume in the historical series. US corn stocks are expected to fall from 54.48 million tons at the end of the 2025/26 crop year to 49.78 million tons at the end of 2026/27 (revised figures from 54.41 and 49.71 million tons, respectively). Globally, the USDA expects corn production to decline from 1.326 billion tons in the old crop year to 1.300 billion tons in the new crop year. These figures were revised from 1.312 and 1.295 billion tons, respectively. Global corn stocks are projected at 281.22 million tons at the end of the 2026/27 season (revised from 277.54 million tons), compared to 303.36 million tons at the end of 2025/26 (revised from 296.95 million tons in the previous report).

Corn production in Brazil and Argentina

The USDA raised its estimate for the 2025/26 corn crop in Brazil and Argentina to 138.00 million tons and 61.00 million tons, respectively – increases of 3.00 million tons and 2.00 million tons, respectively, compared to the May reading. For the 2026/27 season, the department projects Brazilian corn production at 139.00 million tons and Argentine production at 55.00 million tons.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.