USDA raises estimate and now sees record soybean crop in the US in 2026/27.

THE United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) On Friday (10), the US released its July supply and demand report (Wasde), the third with projections for the 2026/27 crop year in the United States. It is worth noting that these estimates were made based solely on calculations that used the planted area report – released on June 30 – and an average of productivity over the last few years. In other words, there is still no field data from the USDA – the first survey based on field research will only be released next month.

Soy

The USDA projects that U.S. producers will harvest 121.79 million tons of soybeans in the 2026/27 crop year, a 5% annual increase compared to the 115.99 million tons produced in 2025/26 and the highest volume in the historical series. The previous projection was 120.70 million tons, which was behind the 2021/22 crop year (121.50 million tons), which was a record at the time. U.S. stocks, on the other hand, are expected to fall from 8.98 million tons at the end of the 2025/26 crop year (revised from 9.25 million tons) to 8.44 million tons at the end of 2026/27, a figure maintained from the June report. Globally, soybean production is expected to rise from 429.46 million tons in the old crop year to 441.70 million tons in the new crop year. The previous report projected 429.20 and 441.34 million tons, respectively. Global soybean stocks are projected at 124.17 million tons at the end of the 2026/27 season (a reduction of 700,000 tons), compared to 125.33 million tons at the end of 2025/26 (a revised figure from 125.52 million tons in the previous report).

Soybean production in Brazil and Argentina

Regarding the 2025/26 soybean crop, the USDA maintained its projection for production in Brazil and Argentina at 180 and 50 million tons, respectively. For 2026/27, the agency continues to estimate production for the two countries at 186 and 50 million tons, in that order.

Corn

The USDA marginally raised its estimate for the 2026/27 US corn crop from 406.29 to 406.42 million tons, representing a 6% decrease from the record 432.34 million tons harvested in the 2025/26 cycle and the second-highest volume in the historical series. US corn stocks are expected to fall from 51.31 million tons at the end of the 2025/26 crop year to 45.46 million tons at the end of 2026/27 (revised figures from 54.48 and 49.78 million tons, respectively). Globally, the USDA expects corn production to decline from 1.327 billion tons in the old crop year to 1.297 billion tons in the new crop year. These figures were revised from 1.326 and 1.300 billion tons, respectively. Global corn stocks are projected at 275.26 million tons at the end of the 2026/27 season (revised from 281.22 million tons), compared to 298.67 million tons at the end of 2025/26 (revised from 303.36 million tons in the previous report).

Corn production in Brazil and Argentina

The USDA maintained its estimate for Brazil's 2025/26 corn crop at 138 million tons and raised Argentina's by 2 million tons, to 63 million tons. For the 2026/27 season, the department projects Brazilian corn production at 139 million tons and Argentine production at 55 million tons.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.