THE United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its outlook for the world coffee market in the 2026/27 crop year, projecting record levels of production, consumption and exports. The estimates are contained in the semi-annual report released this Wednesday (22). According to USDAGlobal coffee production is expected to reach 189.6 million 60-kg bags, an increase of 10.8 million bags compared to the previous crop year. This growth will be driven primarily by record harvests in Brazil, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Vietnam, which will more than offset the projected reductions in India and Indonesia. With the increased supply, global exports of green coffee beans are expected to reach a record 131.4 million bags, an increase of 11.9 million bags compared to the previous cycle. Global consumption is also expected to reach a new record, estimated at 179.7 million bags, driven mainly by demand from the European Union and the United States. As a result, global ending stocks are expected to grow for the second consecutive year, reaching 26.3 million bags.
Brazil
For Brazil, the USDA Brazil projects a record coffee production of 71.9 million bags in 2026/27, an increase of 8.9 million bags compared to the previous cycle. This growth will be driven by the recovery of the Arabica crop, whose production is expected to increase by 9.5 million bags, reaching 47.5 million. In contrast, the Robusta harvest is estimated at 24.4 million bags, a reduction of 600,000 bags after the record registered in the previous season. The greater availability of coffee should boost Brazilian grain exports to a record 45.0 million bags, an increase of 11.0 million bags year-on-year. The country's ending stocks are also expected to grow, with a projection of 4.4 million bags, an increase of 500,000 bags compared to the previous crop.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.