The Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (Mdic) has raised its projection for Brazil's trade balance surplus in 2026 from US$72.1 billion to US$90 billion, according to a note from "Agência Brasil". If confirmed, this figure will be the second highest in the historical series, behind only the result recorded in 2023, and will represent a 32.3% increase compared to the US$68.1 billion surplus obtained in 2025. The revision was announced on Friday (3), after the government identified a performance above expectations in exports and imports throughout the first half of the year. Exports rose 11.5% in the first six months of the year, despite the war in the Middle East and the imposition of tariffs by the Donald Trump administration.
Revised projection
In addition to the estimate for the trade surplus, the MDIC (Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade) also revised its projections for trade flows in 2026. The expectation is that Brazil will export US$394.4 billion this year, US$30.2 billion more than the forecast released in April. For imports, the projection increased from US$292.1 billion to US$304.4 billion. According to the ministry's Director of Statistics and Foreign Trade Studies, Herlon Brandão, the revision reflects the acceleration of Brazilian foreign trade. "We observed an acceleration of flows, both exports and imports, which helped to raise this projected value," he stated.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.