At 10:17 am (Brasilia time) this Monday (13), the Ibovespa It registered a slight drop of 0.31%, to 196,718.34 points. On Friday (10), the main indicator of Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3) It closed sharply higher by 1.12%, at 197,323.87 points, with a cumulative gain of 4.93% for the week. Of greater weight in the composition of… B3a Vale (VALE3) It fell 0.27%. Meanwhile, shares of Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) They were trading sharply higher, rising 1.98% and 1.90%, respectively. The oil company's assets were tracking the global rise in oil prices.
Geopolitical escalation increases risk aversion.
This morning, the market is reacting to the deterioration of… conflict in the Middle East after the failure of diplomatic negotiations between authorities of United States and of Iran.
The new climb made the oil to once again surpass US$100 per barrel, reigniting concerns with global inflation and energy supplyAccording to market estimates, the prolonged lockdown of Strait of Hormuz It has already removed around 11 million barrels per day from the supply of Gulf producers. On Sunday (12), the President Donald Trump stated that US Navy will begin operations of blockade in HormuzThe US Central Command (CENTCOM) It was reported that the action will cover vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports in Persian Gulf and in Gulf of Oman.
Focus and inflation on the domestic radar.
Domestically, investors are reacting to the new edition of Focus Bulletin, released by Central Bank (BC), with data collected up to last Friday (10). Most importantly, the market adjusted the median of the projections for the IPCA The 2026 forecast rose from 4.36% to 4.71%, while the estimate for 2027 advanced from 3.85% to 3.91%. Also in focus is the new research. Datafolha released over the weekend, which showed Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula In a presidential race scenario, although within the margin of error, this would result in a technical tie.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.