The government projects a trade surplus of US$72.1 billion in 2026.

Amid uncertainties about the impact of the war in the Middle East on foreign trade, the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) projects that Brazil's trade balance will have a surplus of US$72.1 billion in 2026, a 5.9% increase compared to the positive balance of US$68.1 billion registered in 2025, according to a note from "Agência Brasil". The estimate considers exports of US$364.2 billion, a 4.6% increase year-on-year, and imports of US$292.1 billion, with a growth of 4.2%. The projected value is close to the lower end of the range previously estimated by the government, which varies between US$70 billion and US$90 billion. According to the director of statistics and foreign trade studies at MDIC, Herlon Brandão, the international scenario still presents uncertainties, but internal indicators support the projection. “We know that the international scenario has challenges, but based on the information we have so far, looking at economic activity, exchange rates, and consumption, the models point to this result,” he stated. Brandão also highlighted the resilience of Brazilian foreign trade in the face of crises. “Despite variations, looking at the direction and level, we observe a relatively stable and resilient Brazilian foreign trade in the face of crises,” he added. Official projections for the trade balance are updated quarterly. According to the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC), new, more detailed estimates on exports, imports, and the trade balance for 2026 will be released in July. The record surplus was registered in 2023, when the positive result was US$ 98.9 billion. :: March Results Data released by the Secretariat of Foreign Trade shows that Brazil registered a surplus of US$ 6.4 billion in March, below market expectations. During the period, exports totaled US$ 31.6 billion, while imports reached US$ 25.2 billion. Export performance was driven mainly by the extractive industry, with a 36.4% increase, boosted by higher oil sales. There was also growth in the manufacturing industry (+5.4%) and agriculture (+1.1%). Imports grew in all segments, with consumer goods (+54.4%) and capital goods (+26.5%) standing out. Year-to-date figures: In the first quarter of 2026, the country accumulated a surplus of US$14.1 billion, above the US$9.6 billion recorded in the same period last year. According to the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC), factors such as the level of economic activity, exchange rates, and international prices continue to influence projections, which may be revised throughout the year as the global scenario evolves. 

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.