The GDP of the soy and biodiesel supply chain is expected to grow by 6.87% this year.

Studies conducted by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics) at Esalq/USP, in partnership with Abiove (Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries), indicate that the GDP of the soybean and biodiesel chain could grow by 6.87% in 2026. According to Cepea/Abiove researchers, this result is linked to a record harvest in Brazil (2025/26) and the intensification of grain processing by the industry. As a result, the GDP of the production chain should represent 21.2% of the agribusiness GDP in 2026 and 4.8% of the national GDP. The projected growth for 2026 adds to the strong growth observed in 2025, when the GDP of the production chain expanded by 11.72%. Data from Cepea/Abiove show growth in all segments of the chain. For inputs, the increase is estimated at 2.57%, due to the expansion of soybean area and production, and advances in field management, resulting in greater demand for seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and technologies. For soybeans, growth is expected to be 7.26%, stemming from increased production, estimated at a record level of 180.56 million tons in 2025/26, according to Conab. The combination of increased area and productivity gains – with the use of technology and favorable weather conditions – sustains this performance. In the agro-industry, researchers from Cepea/Abiove indicate that the increase for 2026 is estimated at 7.74%, driven by the greater supply of the grain and strong demand for derivatives, which stimulate crushing in the year. For animal feed, the positive outlook is based on expectations of growth in livestock chains, according to Sindirações. In the case of biodiesel, a standout in agribusiness growth (with a significant 10.93%), production in the first quarter of 2026 exceeded that of the same quarter of the previous year, reflecting higher demand, still due to the adoption of B15 since August 2025. According to researchers at Cepea/Abiove, the estimated 6.89% increase in the GDP of agricultural services in 2026 is explained by higher soybean production and expanded processing, which increase the demand for transportation, storage, marketing, and other services associated with the flow of grain and its derivatives. Considering the added value per ton, estimates based on information available up to the first quarter of 2026 indicate that the GDP generated per ton of soybeans produced and processed (R$ 6,710) represented 3.84 times the GDP generated by soybeans produced and exported directly (R$ 1,747). LABOR MARKET – The number of people employed in the soybean and biodiesel production chain totaled 2.54 million workers in the first quarter of 2026, an increase of 3.29% compared to the same period of the previous year. With this contingent, the production chain's participation was 2.49% in the Brazilian economy and 11.21% in agribusiness, both slightly higher than those recorded in 2025. Comparing the first quarter of 2026 with the same period of the previous year, Cepea/Abiove points to growth in employment in inputs (1.81%), agro-industry (9.23%), and agro-services (6.09%), while a reduction was observed in soybean production (-6.74%). Cepea/Abiove researchers highlight that this contraction in the first quarter of 2026 seems to consolidate a downward trend in labor in the crop, which has already seen decreases in 2023, 2024, and 2025. The strong expansion in agro-industry is mainly linked to growth in the crushing and refining sub-segment (+6,101 people employed). For biodiesel and animal feed, there was also an expansion of the job market, with 595 and 1,212 people employed, respectively. The behavior of the job market at the beginning of 2026 was aligned with the productive results of the agribusiness sector. In the first quarter, job creation per thousand tons was 26 workers in soybean production and processing, 3.97 times higher than in soybean production and export (6.5 workers). FOREIGN TRADE – Exports from the soybean and biodiesel chain totaled 29.6 million tons in the first quarter of 2026, a volume 5.95% higher than that recorded in the same period of 2025. In value, external sales totaled US$ 12.3 billion, an increase of 11.8%, driven both by the increase in the volume shipped and by the 5.52% increase in average export prices in the chain. For soybeans, researchers at Cepea/Abiove point out that the increase in shipped volumes reflected the record Brazilian harvest and strong international demand. International soybean prices, in turn, were supported especially by the appreciation of oil and expectations of expansion in biofuels. As for oil, strong international demand for raw materials destined for the production of biodiesel and renewable diesel, especially in North America and Asia, boosted exports of the derivative. Regarding prices, the appreciation of oil and the advancement of biofuel policies also supported international quotations. Brazilian soybean meal exports were supported by strong international demand, with a highlight on the increase in shipments to the Middle East and Southeast Asia. However, increased crushing in the main world producers and the greater supply of competing meals, such as canola and sunflower, expanded global availability. As a result, despite the growth in shipments, average export prices registered a slight decline in the first quarter of 2026.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.