At 9:20 am (Brasilia time) this Monday (29), the commercial dollar was operating in stability with an upward bias (-0.04%), quoted at R$ 5.1640. In the last trading session (26), the exchange rate fell 0.19%, to R$ 5.1660, but ended the week with an accumulated gain of 0.02%. The DXY – an index that compares the strength of the dollar with the main global currencies – fell 0.11%. This morning, the market is reacting to new developments in the conflict in the Middle East. After Iran and the United States exchanged attacks last Friday, accusing each other of violating the ceasefire, the two countries agreed, on Sunday afternoon (28), to interrupt hostilities and resume negotiations on the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, the Central Bank (BC) released a new edition of the Focus Bulletin, with data collected up to last Friday. The median estimate for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for 2026 remained at 5.33% – ending a cycle of 15 consecutive weeks of increases. The projection for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth this year was adjusted upwards, from 1.98% to 1.99%, while the expectation for the Selic rate at the end of 2026 remained at 14.00% per year. In the United States, the economic agenda is empty today. On the radar are new labor market data in Brazil and the US, with emphasis on the official US employment report, the payroll, and the Brazilian Caged. The documents should be released on Thursday (2) and Tuesday (30), respectively. The numbers should provide indications about economic activity and reinforce the outlook on the future of interest rates in both countries.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.