At 9:13 am (Brasilia time) this Monday (13), the commercial dollar It was trading slightly higher, up 0.32%, quoted at R$ 5.0250In the last session (10), the exchange rate fell 1.05%, to R$ 5.0090, with a cumulative depreciation of 2.89% in the week. The DXY – an index that compares the strength of the dollar against major global currencies – was up 0.30%.
Geopolitical escalation increases risk aversion.
This morning, the market reacted to the deterioration of the conflict in the Middle East after the failure of diplomatic talks between US and Iranian authorities. The new escalation caused oil to once again exceed US$100 per barrel, reigniting concerns about global inflation and energy supply. According to market estimates, the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has already removed approximately 11 million barrels per day from the supply of Gulf producers. On Sunday (12), President Donald Trump stated that the US Navy will begin blockade operations in Hormuz. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that the action will cover vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Focus and inflation on the domestic radar.
Domestically, investors are reacting to the new edition of Focus Bulletin, released by Central Bank (BC), with data collected up to last Friday (10). Most importantly, the market adjusted the median of the projections for the IPCA The estimate for 2026 rose from 4.36% to 4.71%, while the estimate for 2027 advanced from 3.85% to 3.91%. Also in focus is the new Datafolha poll released over the weekend, which showed Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula in a presidential race scenario, although within the margin of error, resulting in a technical tie.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.