The dollar is trading slightly lower this Monday morning, at R$ 5.04.

At 9:08 am (Brasilia time) this Monday (15), the commercial dollar showed a slight decrease of 0.32%, quoted at R$ 5.0420In the last trading session (12), the exchange rate fell 0.82%, quoted at R$ 5.0580, with an accumulated loss of 1.90% for the week. DXY – an index that compares the strength of the dollar with the main global currencies – fell 0.27%. This morning, investors are reacting to the progress in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran. According to information released by the Pakistani government, which is acting as a mediator in the conflict, a formal agreement should be signed next Friday (19), in Switzerland. Issues related to the Iranian nuclear program should be addressed in a later stage of the negotiations. The President of the United States, Donald Trump, confirmed that an understanding had been reached and announced the end of the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. “Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the opening of the Strait of Hormuz without tolls and, simultaneously, authorize the immediate removal of the US naval blockade,” Trump wrote on his social media. On the Iranian side, the Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, confirmed the existence of the agreement, but stressed that its implementation should only occur after the official signing. According to him, the expectation is that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened within 30 days and that a definitive agreement will be concluded within 60 days. The prospect of normalization of maritime traffic on the main global oil transport route has caused a sharp drop in commodity prices in international markets. In addition to alleviating concerns about energy supply, the decline in oil prices reduces some of the global inflationary pressures, a factor observed by investors on the eve of monetary policy decisions. Federal Reserve (Fed) and of Monetary Policy Committee (Copom)of Central Bank (BC) scheduled for this Wednesday (17). In the domestic scenario, the market is also evaluating the new edition of the Focus Bulletin, released by the BC. Among the highlights, the projection for the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) The 2026 inflation forecast was raised from 5.11% to 5.30%, marking the 14th consecutive week of upward revision. For 2027, the estimate advanced from 4.03% to 4.10%. Expectations for the Selic rate were also revised. The market now projects interest rates of 13.75% at the end of 2026, an increase of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous week. For 2027, the forecast rose from 11.50% to 12.00% per year.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.