At 9:28 am (Brasilia time) this Monday (13), the commercial dollar was operating with a slight increase of 0.22%, quoted at R$ 5.1170. In the last trading session (10), the exchange rate fell 0.31%, quoted at R$ 5.1060, with an accumulated loss of 1.16% in the week. The DXY – an index that compares the strength of the dollar against the main global currencies – showed stability with a downward bias (-0.02%). This morning, market attention turned to the new edition of Focus Bulletin, released by Central BankThe median of the projections for the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) The 2026 forecast fell from 5.30% to 5.16%, while the estimate for 2027 rose from 4.18% to 4.20%. projections for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) They remained practically stable. The growth expectation for 2026 was maintained at 1.99%, while the forecast for 2027 was reduced from 1.69% to 1.65%. In the political scenario, a BTG/Nexus poll released this Monday showed stability in the second-round scenario for the presidential election. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintained 47% of voting intentions, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro remained at 44%, repeating the numbers from the previous survey. Also on the radar is the negotiation between Brazil and the United States to avoid the application of new tariffs on Brazilian products. The US government is expected to announce its decision by Wednesday (16). According to government members, President Lula continues to defend maintaining negotiations until the deadline, despite considering the adoption of tariffs by the Donald Trump administration as likely. In the international market, investors are following the strong rise in oil prices, with contracts advancing more than 3% and the barrel approaching US$ 80. Prices are driven by the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran. On Sunday (12), the US Central Command (Centcom) reported Iran has concluded a new offensive against Iranian targets, aiming to reduce Tehran's ability to attack vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran carried out attacks against US military installations in Gulf countries and announced the closure of the strait, a measure contested by Washington. Investors are also monitoring the truckers' strike that began this Monday at the country's distribution ports. The movement seeks to pressure the Senate to vote on Provisional Measure No. 1,343, known as the Freight MP, which alters the rules for the minimum price of road freight transport.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.