The dollar is showing a slight decrease this Monday morning, at R$ 5.15.

At 9:07 am (Brasilia time) this Monday (6), the commercial dollar It registered a slight increase of 0.45%, quoted at R$ 5,1800, but with a depreciation of 0.99% in the partial week. In the last trading session (2), the exchange rate closed with an upward bias (+0.02%), a R$ 5.1580, but with a cumulative devaluation of 1.43% in the week. Trading was suspended on Friday (3) due to the Good Friday holiday. The DXY – an index that compares the strength of the dollar against major global currencies – was down 0.25%.

Geopolitics remains on the radar.

This morning, investors are following developments in the Middle East conflict as the deadline set by the United States for an agreement with Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz approaches. US President Donald Trump has hardened his rhetoric again, threatening to intensify attacks if no agreement is reached by Tuesday (7). Meanwhile, Pakistan has presented a mediation proposal, called "Islamabad agreement", which foresees the reopening of the strait within a period of 15 to 20 days.

US data reinforces economic outlook.

In the macroeconomic field, the employment report (payroll) of the US indicated the creation of 178,000 job openings in Marchhigher than expected by the market, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%The effects of the war on the US economy should be seen in upcoming inflation indicators. The market is closely watching the release of… PCE, on Thursday (9) — the Federal Reserve’s preferred indicator —, and of March CPI, scheduled for Friday (10).

Focus raises inflation in Brazil.

In the domestic context, the Central Bank (BC) The Focus Bulletin was released, with an upward revision of inflation projections. The market now estimates the IPCA (Brazilian consumer price index) at… 4.36% for 2026 and 3.85% for 2027Meanwhile, expectations for GDP growth, exchange rates, and interest rates remained unchanged. The president of BCGabriel Galípolo is participating this afternoon in an event promoted by FGV/Ibre. In the political arena, the federal government is preparing a package of economic measures, including actions on fuels, energy, and credit, amidst the electoral landscape.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.