The dollar is registering a slight decrease this Monday morning, to R$ 5.15.

At 9:10 am (Brasilia time) this Monday (22), the commercial dollar was showing a slight decrease of 0.23%, quoted at R$ 5.1530In the last session (19), the exchange rate fell 0.15%, quoted at R$ 5.1650, but with an accumulated gain of 2.12% for the week. DXY The index that compares the strength of the dollar against major global currencies was up 0.11%. This morning, investors are reacting to the new edition of the… Focus Bulletin, disclosed by Central Bank (BC)The survey showed that the expectation for the Selic rate at the end of 2026 rose from 13.75% to 14.00% per year, marking the third consecutive week of upward revision. This movement occurs after… Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reduce the basic interest rate by 0.25 percentage points last Wednesday (17), to 14.25% per year. If market projections are confirmed, the BC There would only be room for one more cut of the same magnitude in this cycle. In the political arena, stakeholders are closely monitoring the developments resulting from the most recent poll. DatafolhaThe survey, released on Saturday (20), showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 47% of voting intentions in a possible second round, against 43% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The result repeated the scenario observed in the previous survey, carried out in May. The government's agenda also remains on the radar. Lula is participating today in official engagements in Rio de Janeiro, while the Minister of Finance, Dario Durigan, began a trip to China, where he will have meetings focused on economic and financial cooperation between the two countries. Abroad, attention remains focused on negotiations between the United States and Iran. After the cancellation of the meeting that would formalize the signing of a peace agreement last Friday (19), the market continues to monitor signs of progress in the talks for a definitive agreement, expected to be negotiated over the next 60 days. Even in the face of diplomatic uncertainties, oil prices were falling this morning. Investors believe that talks between Washington and Tehran continue to advance, reducing some of the risks to the global energy supply. On Wall Street, the tone is cautious ahead of the release. of the Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the main inflation indicator followed by Federal Reserve (Fed)The data will be published next Thursday (25) and could influence expectations for the trajectory of US interest rates, especially after central bank officials signaled the possibility of further increases in 2026.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.