THE dollar The commercial exchange rate ended this Monday (27) with a moderate increase of 0.63%, quoted at R$ 5.1110, the highest of the day. At its lowest point, the currency fell to R$ 5.0750. In this trading session, the market reacted to the reduction of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the suspension of attacks between the United States and Iran, a move that caused a sharp drop in international oil prices. This Monday, US President Donald Trump stated that the Iranian government had requested, through intermediaries, a meeting to discuss a possible diplomatic solution to the conflict. In recent sessions, the appreciation of the real had been favored by the perception that the fall in oil prices would have a positive effect on the exchange rate, reducing the inflationary risks associated with energy prices. Abroad, investors turned their attention to the corporate earnings season on Wall Street. The results from Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft, expected this week, are anticipated as a major test for expectations surrounding high investments in artificial intelligence, following the negative reaction to the numbers released by Alphabet last week. Another highlight of the week will be the meeting of… Federal Reserve (Fed), whose decision on the interest rate will be announced on Wednesday (29). Although the prevailing expectation is that interest rates will remain unchanged at this meeting, part of the market has begun to price in a greater possibility of a 0.25 percentage point increase, according to the tool CME FedWatchIn Brazil, the political scenario also remained on investors' radar. Attention is focused on the consolidation of candidacies for the Presidency of the Republic and the release of electoral polls. A Datafolha survey, released on Friday (24), showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 48% of voting intentions in a possible second round against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who appears with 43%. A BTG/Nexus survey, published this Monday, showed Lula with 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 43%. In the field of international relations, agents followed the developments of trade negotiations after the recent tariff package announced by the United States. On Sunday (26), Lula and the President of China, Xi Jinping, advocated accelerating negotiations for a trade agreement between Mercosur and the Asian country. Also on Monday, Lula received the President of South Korea, Lee Jae Myung, and announced the creation of a working group to identify the main obstacles and seek progress in negotiations for a trade agreement between Mercosur and the Asian country, which have been stalled since 2019. Among the economic indicators, the Central Bank The new edition of the Focus Bulletin was released, which reduced the projection for the IPCA (Brazilian consumer price index) in 2026 from 5.15% to 5.12%, while raising the estimate for 2027 from 4.20% to 4.22%. Meanwhile, Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)The index, calculated by FGV Ibre, fell 0.4 points between June and July, to 88.3 points, reaching its lowest level since March 2026, when it registered 88.1 points.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.