THE commercial dollar The exchange rate closed this Monday (15) with a slight increase of 0.12%, quoted at R$ 5.0640. At its highest point of the day, the exchange rate rose to R$ 5.0710; at its lowest, it reached R$ 5.0240. In this trading session, investors kept their attention focused on the international scenario, still reacting to the announcement of an agreement between the United States and Iran to end the conflict in the Middle East and allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the main global routes for oil transport. The expectation is that the memorandum will be formally signed next Friday (19), in Switzerland. To date, the details of the agreement have not been released by the parties involved. The progress of the negotiations contributed to reducing the perception of global risk and alleviating concerns about inflationary pressures associated with energy prices. On Wall Street, the more favorable environment was also driven by the strong performance of the technology sector after SpaceX's debut on the stock market. Considered the largest IPO in US history, the process raised US$85.7 billion, including the exercise of the supplementary ("greenshoe") allotment, according to the company founded by Elon Musk. In economic terms, the Federal Reserve (Fed) It was reported that US industrial production advanced 0.1% in May, slowing from the 0.9% increase recorded in April (revised from 0.7%). The result fell short of market expectations, which projected growth of 0.3%. In Brazil, investors reacted to the new edition of… Focus Bulletin, released by Central Bank (BC)The projection for the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA)The 2026 GDP growth forecast rose from 5.11% to 5.30%, marking the 14th consecutive week of upward revision. For 2027, the estimate advanced from 4.03% to 4.10%. Expectations for the rate Selic Interest rates were also raised. The market now projects interest rates of 13.75% by the end of 2026, compared to 13.50% the previous week. For 2027, the projection rose from 11.50% to 12.00% per year. In the political arena, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is participating in the G7 Summit, held in France between June 16th and 18th. The Brazilian head of state was invited to participate in debates on economic growth, artificial intelligence, and international cooperation, in addition to fulfilling an agenda of bilateral meetings. On investors' radar is the so-called "Super Wednesday," when… Fed and the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) They announce their interest rate decisions. The prevailing expectation is that the US benchmark interest rate will remain in the range between 3.50% and 3.75% per year. In Brazil, part of the market projects a further cut of 0.25 percentage points in the Selic rate.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.