THE commercial dollar The exchange rate closed this Tuesday (16) with a slight increase of 0.41%, quoted at R$ 5.0850. At its highest point of the day, the exchange rate rose to R$ 5.1010; at its lowest, it fell to R$ 5.0480. In this trading session, investors adopted a more cautious stance in view of the monetary policy decisions that will be announced this Wednesday (17). by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and by Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of Central Bank (BC)In the US, the prevailing expectation is for interest rates to remain in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% per year, at the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh at the helm of the US central bank. In Brazil, the market remains divided regarding the next step in monetary policy, although some agents still expect a 0.25 percentage point cut in the Selic rate. The domestic scenario also contributed to investor caution. In addition to fiscal discussions, the market followed the release of new electoral polls. Surveys released by CNT/MDA and Futura Inteligência/Apex indicated an increase in President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in potential scenarios for the 2026 presidential election. In the economic field, the data released on Tuesday showed mixed signals for domestic activity. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)Retail sales fell 1.5% in April compared to March. However, compared to the same month last year, there was an increase of 1.0%. General Price Index – 10 (IGP-10), calculated by Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), registered a drop of 0.30% in June, after a rise of 0.89% in May. With this result, the indicator accumulates an advance of 3.16% in the year and 2.15% in the last 12 months. On the radar, investors continue to monitor the negotiations between the US and Iran. The expectation of the signing of a peace agreement next Friday (19) continues to put pressure on oil prices in the international market.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.