THE dollar The commercial exchange rate closed this Thursday (23) with a moderate increase of 0.65%, quoted at R$ 5.0830, but with a partial devaluation of 0.47% for the week. At its highest point of the day, the exchange rate rose to R$ 5.0920; at its lowest, it fell to R$ 5.0700. In this trading session, the movement reflected the increased risk aversion in international markets in the face of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The surge in oil prices led investors to reassess the economic impacts of the geopolitical scenario, reducing the appetite for emerging market assets, such as the real. Brent crude oil surpassed the US$ 100 per barrel mark, while WTI reached US$ 92 per barrel, amid worsening tensions between the United States and Iran. The scenario deteriorated even after reports that Oman was mediating negotiations involving Saudi Arabia, Yemeni representatives and a special envoy from the United Nations (UN). Pressure on the market increased after the Houthis of Yemen announced a naval blockade of shipments from Saudi Arabia and carried out attacks against oil tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, an important corridor for international oil trade. At the same time, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control and that no oil tanker can transit the region without coordination with Tehran while US military operations persist. Analysts estimate that the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb concentrate about 25% of the world's oil flow. In response, US President Donald Trump promised to impose "severe military punishment" on Iran and the Houthis. In the economic field, the market reacted to the data. from the United States Department of Labor (DOL), which showed 187,000 initial jobless claims in the week ending July 18. The result was below market expectations of 211,000 claims, indicating that the US labor market remains resilient. Also remaining on the radar was US trade policy. Following the entry into force, on Wednesday (22), of the additional 25% tariff on part of Brazilian exports, investors are awaiting the announcement of a new round of tariffs, which could range between 10% and 12.5% for about 60 trading partners, including Brazil. According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, the United States Trade Representative (USTR), Jamieson Greer, is expected to announce the next steps in the Trump administration's tariff policy later this Thursday.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.