The agricultural sector predicts a reduction in the supply of rice during the 2026/27 harvest.

Due to the blockades and geopolitical tension in one of the world's main maritime routes, the Strait of Hormuz, inputs such as diesel oil and agricultural fertilizers have become more expensive compared to last year. The price increase directly impacts the rice production chain in Santa Catarina, which in May harvests the last grains of the 2025/26 crop and must prepare for the next planting in August. This scenario worries the Santa Catarina Rice Industry Union (SindArroz-SC), since the sector has been facing an economic crisis for a year caused by the oversupply of the grain in the national market and the drop in consumption. According to the president of SindArroz-SC, the items that make up the fixed cost table for rice production and processing have increased by an average of 20%, demonstrating that all links in the production chain are suffering the consequences of the conflict in Hormuz. “All links in the production chain are being affected. The packaging sector applied a readjustment of over 40%, the National Agency for Land Transport (ANTT) table readjusted the freight value, excluding free negotiation and causing an increase in the fixed costs of both producers and rice processing industries. This is a significant aggravating factor for the economic situation we have been facing since 2025,” details Rampinelli. :: Crisis may impact consumer pockets. Rice producer Israel Alexandre, from Forquilhinha (SC), states that during the 2025/26 harvest, the liter of S500 diesel he used cost around R$5.50, but today it is over R$7.00. Furthermore, he says that the compounds of the NPK mineral fertilizer (Nitrogen, Potassium and Phosphorus) were also among the main inputs that had price changes, along with urea, essential elements for maintaining his crop. “The production chain suffers from cycles of high supply and low demand, and high demand and low supply, but these cycles are never linear to the scarcity of inputs, and this decapitalizes the producer. If we add the drop in grain consumption and the impact of global geopolitical conflicts on the value of the products we use, there is no alternative but to reduce the planted area and decrease the use of fertilizers and machinery,” explains Israel. Santa Catarina is the second largest rice-producing state in the country, responsible for more than 10% of the national supply. The decrease in planted areas and the scarcity of inputs necessary to maintain high crop performance levels may lead to a low supply of grain after the 2026/27 harvest, raising rice prices in the national market. :: Containment Measures SindArroz-SC, together with the Rice Sector Chamber, is seeking alternatives to contain the sector's economic crisis with the Federal Government. One of the actions involves a request for a meeting with the vice-president, Geraldo Alckmin, to discuss possible ways to reduce production costs in Brazil and lower taxes. "I understand that with the prolongation of this crisis, producers will significantly reduce the planted area due to the high cost of production. However, this reduction will lead to an increase in rice prices and a reduction in the supply of our product in supermarkets, and this will affect the pockets of Brazilian families," points out the union president. 

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.