The 2026/27 Harvest Plan has less funding and a 14.7% drop in subsidized resources, says FPA.

The business-oriented Plano Safra for the 2026/2027 cycle was announced this Tuesday (30) with smaller volumes in areas essential for rural producers, according to the Agricultural Parliamentary Front (FPA). Although the total amount was presented by the government as a record, there was a drop in resources for production and marketing, a 14.7% reduction in the equalized volume, and the inclusion of values from other programs, a methodology that had not been used in previous announcements. In practice, access to rural credit becomes more limited, signaling a replacement of the agricultural policy based on subsidized interest rates with lines with higher financial costs. In total, the announced business-oriented Plano Safra amounts to R$ 525.1 billion, a 1.7% increase compared to the previous cycle. However, only R$ 97 billion are equalized resources, that is, they include participation from the National Treasury to reduce interest rates for producers. In the last harvest, this amount was R$ 113.8 billion. There was also a reduction in the amounts allocated to production and marketing operations. In the 2025/2026 Harvest Plan, the amount was R$ 414.7 billion. In Tuesday's announcement, the value fell to R$ 384.9 billion, a decrease of 7.18%. This drop could affect food production this season, since operating funds function as working capital so that producers can plant, buy inputs, and maintain activity in the field. One of the points highlighted by the Executive in the 2026/2027 Harvest Plan was the increase in the amounts allocated to investment operations. According to the data presented, there was a growth of 38.1%, from R$ 101.5 billion to R$ 140.2 billion. "[We focused] on increasing resources for investments, and here I want to emphasize, with the expectation that we can increase the storage capacity in our country with the investment possibilities that we will have from now on," said the Minister of Finance, Dario Durigan, during the launch ceremony of the Harvest Plan. However, a detailed analysis of the numbers points to a different scenario. Of the 12 investment lines with fixed interest rates, 11 saw a reduction in the volume of resources. The Program for Modernization of the Fleet of Agricultural Tractors and Associated Implements and Harvesters (Moderfrota) registered the largest drop in the availability of resources, going from R$ 9.5 billion to R$ 3.7 billion. The Program for Construction and Expansion of Warehouses (PCA), cited as a priority by the government, saw a reduction of 24.4%. Furthermore, the government artificially increased the volume of investments by including resources from other sources that were not considered in the previous calculations of the Plano Safra (Agricultural Plan). As reported in the press, of the R$ 140.2 billion announced for investment, R$ 10 billion came from Move Agricultura, a line of Move Brasil, and R$ 28.5 billion were incorporated from Ecoinvest Brasil, a mechanism structured last year for pasture recovery. Without these figures, the actual volume of the business-oriented Plano Safra (agricultural plan) falls to R$ 486.6 billion. This represents a 5.7% reduction compared to the previous cycle, which negates the announcement as a record-breaking Plano Safra.

Volumes could be even smaller.

A significant portion of the business-oriented Plano Safra (agricultural credit plan) is comprised of resources from Rural Product Certificates (CPRs), totaling approximately R$ 194 billion. The inclusion of these operations began in last year's announcement and, according to the government, is justified because the main source of these resources are Agribusiness Credit Notes (LCAs). These fundraising instruments are considered in the calculation because they are tax-exempt, as investors do not pay income tax on earnings. According to the Agribusiness Private Finance Bulletin from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa), the stock of LCAs reached R$ 571.5 billion in May of this year. However, the tool could have had a smaller impact on the Plano Safra if the government had implemented stricter measures. Last year, the Executive Branch issued a Provisional Measure that eliminated the exemption and added a 7.5% tax on securities such as LCAs and Agribusiness Credit Rights Certificates (CDCAs). Despite the government's initiative and mobilization, the Parliamentary Agricultural Front (FPA) worked to defeat the proposal. The group's assessment is that the resources available for the Harvest Plan could be even smaller if the measure had been turned into law.

Rural insurance is not mentioned in the advertisement.

Another point that was not highlighted during the launch of the Harvest Plan was Rural Insurance. In recent weeks, the government reduced resources for the Rural Insurance Premium Subsidy Program (PSR), blocking R$ 461.6 million and making two additional cuts of R$ 56.3 million and R$ 25.7 million. As a result, the initial budget of R$ 1.01 billion fell to approximately R$ 473 million. During the ceremony, the Executive Branch expressed positive expectations regarding the 2026/2027 harvest, indicating the possibility of a new production record. However, the practical measures are moving in the opposite direction to the sector's needs, since the PSR is expected to have limited coverage at a time of greater exposure to climate risk. The situation becomes even more worrying given the confirmation of the El Niño phenomenon and the debt scenario of Brazilian producers. Therefore, the FPA's actions prioritize Bill 5.122/2023, which deals with the renegotiation of rural debts, and Bill 2.951/2024, which restructures Rural Insurance.

This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.