The tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian products should have limited effects on Brazil's trade balance. However, sectors of industry will feel the impact, although the measures taken by the Donald Trump administration affect only 18% of national exports to the US market. According to experts consulted by [source name missing]. "Agência Brasil"The areas that will suffer the most from losses in competitiveness are segments that export significantly to the United States and have difficulty relocating markets. Among the affected sectors are machinery, steel, aluminum, footwear, and automobiles. In the first half of 2026, according to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), Brazil imported US$1.5 billion more from the US market than it exported. Brazil's trade deficit and surplus with the United States remain, despite the shrinking of bilateral trade since last year.
Trade declines
Trade between Brazil and the United States totaled US$36.4 billion in the first half of the year, a 12.8% decrease compared to the same period last year. Brazilian exports fell 13% to US$17.4 billion, while imports of American products dropped 12.5%, totaling US$19 billion. As a result, Brazil ended the period with a trade deficit of US$1.5 billion. In June, exports grew 3.7%, reaching US$3.47 billion, but this result was supported by an 11% increase in average prices. The volume shipped fell 6.6%.
Concentrated effect
Lia Valls, associate researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre) of the Getulio Vargas Foundation and professor at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (Uerj), states that the tariff increase will hardly alter the aggregate performance of the Brazilian trade balance, since the United States now accounts for a smaller share of national exports. "Changing the trade balance, in macroeconomic terms, is unlikely. Our biggest market is really Asia, mainly China. The share of exports to the United States has fallen to about 9.4%," she says. According to her, the effects should be felt mainly by companies and industrial sectors more dependent on the American market. "You may have more microeconomic effects on companies, mainly in the machinery, equipment, wood and footwear sectors," she enumerates. The executive president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB), José Augusto de Castro, also rules out a significant effect on the trade surplus. "Brazil's trade surplus is derived exclusively from commodities [primary goods with international pricing]. The tariff increase spared precisely commodities with which Brazil competes with the United States, such as soybeans, orange juice, and meat," he explains.
Industry loses
According to José Augusto de Castro, the greatest damage will be to the national industry, responsible for the production of higher value-added goods. "We have a large trade surplus, but a gigantic trade deficit in manufactured goods. This deficit is what is worrying, because it is the manufacturing sector that generates employment in Brazil." Castro states that the new barriers tend to favor international competitors. "Since the surcharge directly affected manufactured products, it opens markets for other countries that previously did not export these products and now occupy that space."
Political motivations
According to Lia Valls, the escalation of tariffs has ceased to follow economic criteria and has begun to incorporate political arguments. This is mainly because, unlike most countries, Brazil has a trade deficit with the United States. "When he [Trump] increased it to 40%, the arguments were really much more political in nature. There wasn't much economic argument in that story," she says. According to the economist, issues such as decisions by the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the regulation of digital platforms, Pix (Brazil's instant payment system), and environmental policies have begun to be used as justifications for expanding trade sanctions.
Retaliation divides
The Brazilian federal government is considering invoking the Economic Reciprocity Law to respond to the US tariff hikes. However, experts see little benefit in retaliation. Lia Valls believes Brazil lacks the capacity to impose significant losses on the United States. "The problem is that we don't have the capacity for retaliation against the United States. If you can't cause effective harm to the other party, it ends up backfiring on you. The gain would be small. The way forward is to denounce the measure and take the case to the World Trade Organization," she suggests. José Augusto de Castro also considers a tariff response likely to be ineffective. "I don't believe in retaliation. International trade is about negotiations, not retaliation. Brazil doesn't have the resources to retaliate against the United States. We have everything to lose and nothing to gain. In theory, reciprocity seems appropriate, but in practice, it's very difficult to implement," he warns.
Affected products
The tariffs were imposed based on Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, an instrument used by the United States to apply unilateral trade measures. Although the standard rate is 25%, for 24% of the affected products, it reaches 50%. This is because the tariff increase, in these cases, was added to tariffs previously imposed by the United States. Among the sectors most affected are steel, aluminum, automobiles, machinery, equipment, footwear, and wood products. Aircraft, aerospace components, petroleum, soybeans, coffee, beef, and orange juice were excluded from the surcharges.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.