The recent and significant increase in diesel prices has already impacted wheat and wheat flour freight prices. According to the São Paulo State Wheat Industry Union (Sindustrigo), this factor, coupled with the rise in commodity prices on national and international physical markets and exchanges, resulting from current uncertainties, is putting pressure on the entire cereal chain. The US-Iran conflict, in addition to inflating fuel prices, also compromises the availability of fertilizers, threatening agricultural production in general. “This factor may worsen the future availability of wheat in the state, as there are indications of a decrease in the 26/27 harvest. Entities linked to agriculture report producers' intention to reduce the planted area in the next cycle, as pointed out at the March meeting of the São Paulo State Wheat Sector Chamber,” notes the president of Sindustrigo, Max Piermartiri. Another factor is the entry into force of Complementary Law (LC) No. 224/2025, increasing the acquisition costs of wheat raw material for national mills. From April 1st, Law 224 cuts the presumed credit from 3.23% to 2.91% and imposes a 1.175% PIS/COFINS tax on imported goods, without equivalent credit. According to studies by tax experts, its constitutionality can be questioned, but not in time to prevent its impact. The president of Sindustrigo highlights the scenario of fiscal warfare in the sector, resulting from tax imbalances that favor wheat mills from other federative units. "We took the demands to the government of São Paulo seeking a dialogue that can balance competition between states and preserve the competitiveness of the São Paulo wheat industry, without disproportionately passing on the impacts to the final consumer," he reinforces. Completing a scenario of volatility, wheat on the Chicago Stock Exchange had already been reflecting reports of climatic problems (drought) in American crops. In the global scenario, there are indications of a drop in production in the 2026/2027 world harvest. The Argentine 2025/26 harvest, with a record 29.5 million tons, is of inferior quality, worrying Brazilian and even Argentine mills. Given this scenario, Sindustrigo reinforces the importance of constant dialogue between government, industry, producers, and consumers to mitigate the impacts of rising wheat flour prices in São Paulo. “The stability of the wheat chain depends on aligned public policies and a long-term vision for the sector. We remind everyone that Sindustrigo's actions prioritize the balance of the entire cereal chain, from the field to the consumer's table,” concludes the president of Sindustrigo.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.