EY released the research “Top 10 risks and opportunities in agriculture in 2026”, with an exclusive focus on Brazil. The study points to climate change, people management, and geopolitics as the sector's main priorities, in addition to assessing the level of preparedness of companies to face these challenges. Climate change appears as the main risk for the sector, with 79% of respondents classifying its impacts as high or very high. The result highlights the difficulty producers face in anticipating extreme events such as droughts, floods, and frosts, as well as the increasing pressure on credit, rural insurance, market access, food and biofuel chains, market volatility, crop failures, environmental requirements, and possible logistical disruptions. “We are living in a polycritical environment, marked by uncertainty, volatility, and constant climate change, which naturally impacts business confidence and reduces the market's willingness to respond to and project scenarios. At the same time, this context also opens up opportunities and allows the sector to adapt. This includes operational modernization and the ability of companies to understand their risk profile in an increasingly complex scenario,” says Otavio Lopes, agribusiness partner and leader at EY. People management appears as the second main concern for the sector in 2026. Agribusiness is one of the sectors that employs the most people in the country and, in 2024 alone, totaled 28.2 million workers. Furthermore, labor now represents between 20% and 40% of the total cost of agricultural production. This data reflects the urgency in training, attracting, and retaining qualified talent in the face of structural change driven by accelerated digitalization, sector growth, and the professionalization of operations. “Conversely, the capacity for qualification has not kept pace with the rate of technological innovation, creating a deficit of professionals in the country to operate drones, sensors, digital systems, automation, and precision agriculture. At the same time, a large part of the agricultural workforce has low levels of education, which limits access to new professions and restricts the potential for technical evolution in the sector,” assesses Lopes. In third place, geopolitics and international trade appear as relevant challenges for companies involved in Brazilian agricultural chains with lower levels of preparedness. Trade disputes, input shocks, wars, pandemics, and regulatory changes can reshape margins from one harvest to another, increasing the exposure of agribusiness to geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in the international market. “The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, for example, shows how geopolitical events can generate immediate impacts on logistics, maritime freight, insurance, and fuel and fertilizer prices, directly affecting the sector's production and export costs,” contextualizes Otavio. In recent decades, Brazil has consolidated itself as a major exporter of agricultural products and today leads in trade balance across several sectors. According to the WTO, the country recorded an agricultural surplus of approximately US$143 billion in 2024, the largest in the world. China, for example, presented an agricultural deficit of US$190 billion. “This progress was driven both by increased production and the opening of new markets, especially by demand from China, the main destination for Brazilian agricultural exports. This growth, however, has increased the sector's dependence on exports and the global geopolitical landscape,” assesses Otavio.
Other relevant topics in the sector
Following the ranking, government policies, reforms, and regulations appear as the fourth most potentially impactful theme for the sector, while companies acknowledge a low level of preparedness. Tax, environmental, credit, and incentive rules directly shape the profitability, competitiveness, and viability of certain activities. “The advancement of tax reform adds a new element of attention for agribusiness, requiring companies to have greater capacity to adapt to changes in tax calculation and the reorganization of production chains. In a highly integrated sector with large-scale operations, regulatory changes can impact costs, margins, and investment decisions,” adds the partner. In the middle of the table, technology, digital transformation, and innovation appear as the fifth theme for which the agribusiness sector feels least prepared, in a context of increasing exposure to international competition in markets marked by a high degree of state intervention, such as subsidies, tariff barriers, and producer support policies. “Technological advancement is becoming a determining factor for productivity gains and sustainable growth. Studies have already identified, for the past two years, agtech companies in the country operating in segments such as finance, genetics, animal health, and input marketplaces. This highlights the intensity of digital transformation in agriculture and the pressure for companies to effectively incorporate these solutions,” comments Otavio. Since agricultural commodities are priced internationally, exchange rate fluctuations add to production and consumption shocks, amplifying the risk for producers and companies throughout the chain. In this scenario, financial risk management and commodity market management emerge as the sixth main risk for Brazilian agribusiness. In addition to the challenges already mentioned above, productivity, cost control, and efficiency in asset management appear in seventh place and remain pillars of the competitiveness of Brazilian agriculture in a scenario of pressured margins. In the last three decades, increased productivity has been one of the main drivers of the sector's expansion: grain production in Brazil, for example, grew by 267%.”
Last positions
Logistics, transportation infrastructure, storage, and distribution appear in eighth position. The main grain-producing regions have migrated from the traditional centers of the South and Southeast to the Midwest, Northeast, and North, distancing production from the main consumer markets and ports and increasing dependence on a transportation and storage infrastructure that is still adapting. Despite the significant increase in the use of railways and river transport, the Brazilian transportation matrix remains predominantly road-based, accounting for about 65% of total cargo. Regarding this topic, the storage deficit also remains one of the main structural bottlenecks of Brazilian agribusiness. The country has the capacity to store only 61.7% of the grain harvest projected for 2026, the lowest level recorded in about two decades. According to estimates from the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA), based on data from the National Supply Company (Conab), production should reach 353.4 million tons, while the storage deficit will reach 135.4 million tons. "This scenario puts pressure on the entire logistics chain, increases transportation costs, and reduces the negotiating power of producers, who often need to anticipate sales due to a lack of adequate space to store their production," comments the partner. In ninth place are ethics, compliance, and internal controls. In agribusiness, integrity has ceased to be a checklist and has become a condition for access to markets, credit, and legitimacy. Regulators are expanding their focus on ESG, global buyers are demanding supply chains free from deforestation and forced labor, and financiers are incorporating socio-environmental criteria into credit granting models, making the topic more technical and operational. “In 2026, an agenda marked by the expansion of ESG requirements, discipline in data management, greater scrutiny of third parties, and the need for rapid responses to socio-environmental risks, fraud, and corruption stands out,” says Otavio. Closing the ranking in tenth place are challenges related to growth strategy and access to capital. This movement reflects the shift from a scenario of greater liquidity and competition among financiers to a more expensive and selective credit environment, with risk repricing and greater demands for guarantees, transparency, and financial discipline. More recently, a partial normalization of appetite has been observed, but with clearer segmentation between risk profiles and greater rigor in structuring, especially in operations linked to supply chains, capital markets, and financing with traceable backing. About the study: The “Top 10 risks and opportunities in agribusiness in 2026” is a study conducted with the main leaders of Brazilian agribusiness, which assesses the maturity of companies to deal with the challenges and opportunities of the sector.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.