Prepared by Mosaic, the Fertilizer Purchasing Power Index (IPCF) closed the month of March at 1.53, compared to 1.28 in February. This movement was mainly driven by rising fertilizer prices, exerting significant pressure on the index. The exchange rate had a limited impact, with the dollar appreciating by 0.6% during the month. On the agricultural commodities side, there was a variation of +1.3%, with increases observed in crops such as sugarcane, corn, cotton, and soybeans. This performance partly reflects the appreciation of oil, although it was partially offset by the large Brazilian harvest, which maintains high domestic supply. Fertilizer prices, with an increase of +10%, were impacted by the conflict in the Middle East, with a combination of factors, including supply constraints, increased production costs, and higher logistics costs, in line with the rise in oil and sulfur prices. Looking ahead, the international environment continues to demand attention. The persistence of geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East—a strategic region for the production and global flow of fertilizers—has contributed to a context of greater uncertainty and volatility. This scenario may lead to greater resistance of the IPCF at high levels, limiting the adequate response time for the current crop or for planning the planting of the next crop, as international conflicts continue to affect the global balance of fertilizer supply and demand. :: Understanding the IPCF The IPCF is published monthly by Mosaic and consists of the relationship between fertilizer price indicators and agricultural commodity prices. The methodology consists of a comparison to the 2017 base, indicating that the lower the ratio, the more favorable the index and the better the terms of trade. The IPCF calculation takes into account the main Brazilian crops: soybeans, corn, sugar, ethanol, and cotton.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.