THE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) NOAA reported this Thursday (21) that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be below the historical average. According to the US agency, there is a 55% probability of a below-average season, a 35% chance of near-normal activity, and only a 10% possibility of an above-average season. The forecast considers the official Atlantic hurricane season period, which runs from June 1 to November 30. NOAA estimates the formation of 8 to 14 named storms, with winds equal to or greater than 63 km/h. Of this total, between 3 and 6 systems are expected to evolve into hurricanes, with winds exceeding 119 km/h. The agency also projects 1 to 3 major hurricanes — categories 3, 4 or 5 — with winds exceeding 179 km/h. According to NOAA, there is 70% confidence in the projections released. In a typical season, the historical average is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major storm systems. The expectation of less activity in 2026 is mainly related to the development of the El Niño phenomenon throughout the season. According to NOAA, El Niño conditions tend to reduce the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic. On the other hand, above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures and weaker trade winds continue to act as factors favorable to cyclonic activity. The agency stressed that the forecast refers only to the overall activity of the season and does not indicate where or when potential storms may hit coastal areas.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.