Morning Call Sep 02nd, 2026

NY #11: October 2026 rose another 55 points in the latest session, to US$ 18.36 c/lb, the highest value for the first future since June 2022, amid weather-related supply risks in India and CS Brazil. March 2027 settled at US$ 19.33 c/lb, maintaining the Oct 2026/Mar 2027 spread at 97 points of carry.
 

India: according to the IMD, cumulative monsoon rainfall from June through September was 14% below normal as of August 31st, pointing toward confirmation of the weakest monsoon in 11 years.
 

CS Brazil: dry weather at the end of August favored crushing and allowed mills to recover part of the accumulated delays. However, weather conditions in September are expected to be atypical, with more frequent rainfall and incursions of cold air.
 

CS Brazil: some cane-growing regions remain behind schedule with harvesting, particularly in Paraná and the microregions of Presidente Prudente, Araçatuba, Bauru, and Piracicaba.
 

CS Brazil: a new cold front is expected to bring rainfall between September 4 and 6, with accumulations of 15-30 mm and volumes above 40 mm in Paraná. Additional rainfall may occur between September 9 and 11, increasing the risk of harvesting disruptions.
 

Brazil: CBio generation reached 3.800 million credits in July (+8.0% YoY), bringing the year-to-date total to 24.981 million CBios (+0.3% YoY).
 

Brazil: the gasoline-to-ethanol substitution rate averaged 47.6% in July (+3.5 p.p. YoY), the highest monthly level since February 2018.
 

Brazil: although hydrous ethanol was more competitive at the pump in 67.8% of the Otto-cycle fuel market, only Mato Grosso (68.4%), São Paulo (60.9%), and Goiás (59.3%) recorded substitution rates above 50%.
 

Indonesia: sugar imports reached 218 k mt in July (-36.4% YoY), the lowest volume for the period since 2015, bringing the year-to-date total to 2.231 mmt (-5.6% YoY).
 

Indonesia: Thailand remains the leading sugar supplier year-to-date, with 1.766 mmt (79.2% of total imports), followed by Australia (14.3%) and Brazil (5.6%).