Morning Call May 26th, 2026

Brazil: ethanol market for producers recorded low liquidity and only spot negotiations last week, amid rains across the Center-South. Market participants increasingly view current prices as already reflecting excessive depreciation for this stage of the crop, supporting stabilization after several consecutive weeks of decline.
 

Brazil: hydrous ethanol at the pump gained competitiveness against gasoline in recent weeks, reflecting the gradual pass-through of lower ethanol prices to consumers.
 

Brazil: last week, ethanol maintained or expanded its competitiveness in eight states, which together account for 60.4% of national Otto-cycle fuel consumption, up from 49.3% a year ago.
 

Brazil: there is still room for further gains in ethanol’s competitiveness at the pump, as producer prices in São Paulo have fallen 23.3% since the beginning of the year, while retail prices declined only 6.8%.
 

Brazil: the lag in price pass-through reflects factors such as inventories and distribution/retail margins, suggesting potential for further price declines at service stations in the coming weeks.
 

Brazil: among Brazil’s 27 states, 20 recorded declines in hydrous ethanol prices last week, bringing the national average down to R$ 4.27/liter (-2.51%).
 

Philippines: cane crushing in the 25/26 crop reached 22.16 mmt as of May 10th (-4.2% YoY), while raw sugar production totaled 1.77 mmt (-5.1% YoY).
 

Mexico: until May 16th, cumulative cane crushing for the 25/26 crop reached 45.8 mmt (+3.8% YoY), while sugar production totaled 4.96 mmt (+7.1% YoY).
 

Thailand: sugar exports totaled 461 k mt in April (-33.3% YoY), reaching 2.370 mmt cumulatively in the 25/26 crop (-11.1% YoY).
 

Indonesia remains the main destination for Thai sugar in the 25/26 crop, with 663 k mt (28.0% of total exports), followed by Cambodia (244 k mt; 10.3%) and Malaysia (217 k mt; 9.1%).