Morning Call May 25th, 2026

NY raw sugar market had a volatile week, oscillating between bullish and bearish fundamentals, with no clear trend definition. Last Friday, July 2026 fell 20 points to US$ 14.70 c/lb, accumulating losses of 10 points over the week.
 

Sugar market continues to assess concerns over the advance of El Niño and its potential impacts on Southeast Asia and CS Brazil. In addition, there is growing perception that the global sugar balance could shift from a surplus in 25/26 to a tighter scenario in 26/27.
 

Trade Flow global surplus continues to limit more aggressive upward movements in sugar prices, alongside positive 25/26 production prospects in the EU, China, Pakistan, and Thailand.
 

CFTC: funds and small specs decreased slightly their net short position in the NY raw sugar market from 92,990 lots on May 12th, to 91,770 lots on May 19th.
 

CS Brazil: ethanol market for producers saw low liquidity and only spot negotiations during the week, amid heavy rainfall and the perception that prices have already reached its bottom.
 

CS Brazil: last Friday, in São Paulo, hydrous ethanol prices for producers reached R$ 2.2480/liter, up slightly by 0.9% on the week, while anhydrous ethanol was traded at R$ 2.5878/liter, stable WoW, both ex-mill and net of taxes.
 

CS Brazil: in Paulínia (SP), the CIF price for hydrous ethanol reached R$ 2.3571/liter, net of taxes, up 1.4% on the week, according to DATAGRO Price Reporting Agency (PRA).
 

CS Brazil: ethanol stocks held by mills in the region reached 2.153 billion liters on April 30th (+72.3% YoY), including 1.482 billion liters of hydrous ethanol (+81.0% YoY) and 671 million liters of anhydrous ethanol (+55.6% YoY).
 

CS Brazil: according to DATAGRO estimates, on April 30th ethanol stocks would be sufficient to supply the domestic market for 24 days for hydrous ethanol (+11 days) and 17 days for anhydrous ethanol (+4 days).
 

Indonesia’s government announced it will adopt gasoline blended with 5% ethanol (E5) in selected regions starting in July 2026.
 

Indonesia’s government also determined that all feedstock used in ethanol production must be domestically sourced, with no imported product allowed.
 

Indonesia: according to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, only three companies are currently able to supply fuel ethanol in the country, with a combined capacity of 26 million liters/year.