Analysis DATAGRO
NY July 2026 raw sugar rose 17 points yesterday to US$ 14.90 c/lb, reflecting concerns surrounding El Niño and its potential impacts on some of the market’s main players in 26/27.
El Niño: according to NOAA, the phenomenon is expected to develop in the coming weeks, with a 82% probability between May-Jul 2026, and a 96% chance of persisting between Dec 2026 thru Feb 2027.
El Niño: between Nov 2026 and Jan 2027, climate models indicate high probability of intensification, with 67% chance of a strong, or very strong, El Niño event.
CS Brazil: cane crushing reached 39.46 mmt in 2H Apr (+124.4% YoY), the highest volume ever recorded for the period, according to Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAPA).
CS Brazil: industrial yield reached 118.38 kg TRS/mt (+5.5% YoY), while sugar production mix fell 5.5 p.p., to 39.6%.
CS Brazil: sugar production totaled 1.763 mmt in 2H Apr (+107.8% YoY).
CS Brazil: ethanol production more than doubled from last year (+160% YoY), reaching 1.664 billion liters, of which 780 million liters produced from corn (+93.0% YoY).
Brazil: according to DATAGRO Line-up, three new vessels were nominated for ethanol exports in May, departing from ports of Santos and Paranaguá, with a combined volume of 77 million liters.
Brazil: cumulative ethanol exports since January total 332 million liters (-32.1% YoY), according to DATAGRO Line-up.
Guatemala: cane crushing reached 25.74 million tons through May 10th (+4.5% YoY), while sugar production totaled 2.71 mmt over the same period (+8.7% YoY).
Mexico: Conadesuca revised upward its 25/26 cane crushing forecast, from 48.73 mmt to 49.83 mmt, up 8.9% YoY.
Mexico’s 25/26 sugar production estimate was also raised from 5.26 mmt to 5.41 mmt tel quel, up 13.3% from the previous crop.
Vietnam will begin mandatory nationwide distribution of gasoline blended with 10% ethanol (E10) starting next June 1st.
Agenda para hoje
● CFTC.