Morning Call May 21st, 2026

NY raw sugar market moved lower this Wednesday, with July 2026 dropping 28 points to US$ 14.73 c/lb, accumulating losses of 65 points over the past week, mainly pressured by the sharp decline in oil prices.
 

Energy market lost momentum after statements from the U.S. president indicated progress in negotiations with Iran, reinforcing expectations of a gradual resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
 

Oil: the bearish move intensified after three supertankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz carrying around 6 million barrels bound to South Korea and China.
 

India: the market remains attentive to climate risks in Southeast Asia, with an early advance of the monsoon season in 2026. According to IMD, the system is expected to reach India between May 25th and 26th, five to six days earlier than normal.
 

India: despite the early arrival of monsoons, weather models indicate below-average rainfall, reflecting the strengthening of El Niño and the increasing probability of a “Super El Niño” by the end of 2026.
 

Australia’s 26/27 cane crop officially began in Queensland. The earlier start of crushing operations in some regions reflects expectations of greater cane availability, supported by favorable weather conditions and recovering agricultural productivity.
 

Australia: the ASM projects cane crushing of approximately 30 mmt in 26/27, with 28.7 mmt expected in Queensland.
 

Brazil: sugar shipment nominations declined from 44 to 42 vessels this week, scheduled to load 1.681 mmt (-39.1% YoY). China is the main destination, with 371 k mt nominated (22.1% of the total), followed by Canada (10.6%) and India (6.9%).
 

Brazil: waiting time to berth at CLI 16/17 terminals, Santos port, increased from 6 to 8 days during the week, still below the 12 days observed a year ago.
 

U.S. ethanol production increased 2.7% in the week ending May 15th, reaching 1.111 mbpd (+7.2% YoY). Ethanol stocks remained virtually stable in the week at 24.870 million barrels (-0.3% YoY).
 

U.S. gasoline demand is virtually unchanged in the week (+0.1%), totaling 8.767 mbpd (+1.4% YoY).
 

Ukraine: sugar beet planting for the 26/27 crop completed in the country, totaling 162.1 k ha of cultivated area (-18.0% YoY), the lowest acreage since Ukraine’s independence, according to Ukrtsukor.