Morning Call May 19th, 2026

NY #11: the raw sugar market continued to drift lower this Monday — the July 2026 contract slipped 7 points to US$ 14.73 c/lb, as the market found no new bullish catalyst to revert the recent bearish trend.
 

Sugar market remains range-bound despite short-term bullish signals: India has finally moved to restrict sugar exports in 25/26, and oil prices remain elevated amid ongoing U.S.–Iran undefined ceasefire negotiations.
 

Broad market consensus points to a shift from a surplus in 25/26 to a tighter balance or even a deficit in 26/27 (Oct/Sep) — but a sustained price rally in the medium term still seems premature.
 

Brazil: government intention to subsidize gasoline price to consumers overshadowed cast doubts over the expectation of a run on ethanol consumption in 2026.
 

Brazil: hydrous ethanol regained economic competitiveness vs. gasoline in additional states last week, now holding an advantage in 8 states representing ~60.4% of Otto-cycle fuel consumption in 2026, up from 5 states (49.3%) a year ago.
 

Thailand 25/26: cane crushing totaled 105.86 mmt, up 15.0% YoY. Sugar production reached 11.998 mmt tel quel, up 19.4% YoY – DATAGRO estimate was 12.0 mmt tel quel.
 

Thailand: for 26/27, planted area is expected to shrink nearly 8% due to low sugar prices and more attractive cassava returns.
 

China: sugar imports fell to only 30 k mt in May, down 77.8% YoY — the lowest monthly volume since February 2025. Cumulative imports since October 2025 stand at 2.42 mmt, still 38.8% above the same period of 24/25. A record 25/26 domestic crop of 12.40 mmt appears to be curbing import appetite.