Analysis DATAGRO

NY raw sugar market extended gains for a fourth consecutive session, with July 2026 contract rising 37 points to US$ 15.38 c/lb, moving back above the US$ 15 c/lb level.

India: the government surprised the market by immediately banning sugar exports through September 30th, seeking to preserve domestic supply amid a tighter balance sheet.

India: the restriction covers raw, white, and refined sugar, but maintains exceptions for shipments to the European Union and the U.S. under tariff quotas and previously established agreements.

Brazil: the government announced a gasoline subsidy of up to R$ 0.89/liter for producers and importers amid tensions in the Middle East and pressure on domestic fuel prices.

Brazil: the initial proposal foresees a partial subsidy of R$ 0.45/liter for two months, with an estimated monthly cost between R$ 1.0 billion and R$ 1.5 billion.

Brazil: even under a scenario involving the full R$ 0.89/liter gasoline adjustment, DATAGRO estimates indicate that Petrobras prices would still remain 27.4% below import parity.

Brazil: the 25/26 crop year ended in Alagoas with cane crushing reaching 17.8 mmt (+1.7% YoY), although with lower industrial yields at 133.14 kg TRS/mt (-4.3% YoY).

Brazil: sugar production in Alagoas reached 1.42 mmt (-12.1% YoY), reflecting lower TRS and a more ethanol-oriented mix, while ethanol production increased 19.2% to 483 million liters.

Brazil: sugar shipping nominations increased from 40 to 44 vessels, with a combined cargo of 1.819 mmt (-39.6% YoY). China ranked as the main destination with 374 k mt (20.6% of the total), followed by Canada (11.3%) and India (8.2%), according to the DATAGRO Line-up.

Brazil: waiting time for berthing at CLI 16/17 terminal, Santos port, increased from 5 to 6 days, compared to 14 days registered in the same period last year.

El Salvador: the 25/26 crop year ended with cane crushing totaling 6.593 mmt (+9.4% YoY) and sugar production reaching 780 k mt (+13.5%), in line with DATAGRO estimates.

U.S. ethanol production increased 6.4% last week to 1.082 mbpd (+9.0% YoY), while ethanol inventories declined 4.4% WoW to 24.870 million barrels (-2.3% YoY).

U.S. gasoline demand declined 0.7% last week to 8.754 mbpd, a slight decrease of 0.5% YoY.
Agenda para hoje
● DATAGRO Grains Line-up.