Morning Call May 12th, 2026

NY July 2026 raw sugar gained 22 points in the last session, settling at US$ 14.91 c/lb, mainly supported by the oil market.
 

NY raw sugar market continues to lack momentum to break out of its current range, despite occasional recovery attempts, remaining mostly between US$ 14 and 15 c/lb in recent months. This reflects the market’s view of a less tight global balance in 25/26.
 

Global sugar balance in 25/26 is expected to post a small surplus of 570 k mt, following significant deficits in the previous two seasons.
 

Global sugar balance for 26/27 is expected to converge to a 3.10 mmt deficit, driven by lower planted area in the EU and Thailand, El Niño-related impacts on India and Indonesia, and reduced investments in cane fields in CS Brazil.
 

Global sugar balance: with the exception of India and Indonesia, most producers are expected to begin responding to the environment of prices below production costs in 26/27.
 

Brazil: the arbitrage window for Brazilian ethanol exports (via the port of Santos) to the U.S. became viable again on the West Coast, with a positive spread ranging from US$ 30.77/cbm to US$ 66.72/cbm, depending on the product’s carbon intensity.
 

Brazil: last week, hydrous ethanol remained more competitive than gasoline in the states of Minas Gerais (69.89%), Mato Grosso (65.78%), Mato Grosso do Sul (65.80%), Paraná (67.40%), and São Paulo (63.85%).
 

Brazil: together, these states account for 49.0% of Otto-cycle fuel consumption in 2026. In the same period of 2025, ethanol was also competitive in five states, representing 49.3% of this consumption.
 

Brazil: among the country’s 27 states, 18 recorded declines in retail hydrous ethanol prices, reducing the national average to R$ 4.44/liter last week.
 

Brazil: sugar exports totaled 683 k mt in the first week of May, up 28.4% compared to the daily average recorded in May 2025.
 

Mexico: cane crushing reached 42.6 mmt in the 25/26 crop year through May 2nd (+1.7% YoY), while sugar production totaled 4.61 mmt during the period (+5.3% YoY).