Analysis DATAGRO
NY raw sugar market traded largely sideways this Tuesday, with July 2026 up 8 points to US$ 15.37 c/lb, accumulating gains of 60 points on the week, supported by a strong ethanol-oriented mix in CS Brazil, even amid lower oil prices.
U.S. dollar fell 0.7% against the Brazilian Real to R$ 4.9242/US$ (Ptax), the lowest level since January 2024, adding further pressure to the sugar market.
CS Brazil: ethanol stocks held by mills in the region ended the 25/26 crop at 1.582 billion liters (-25.7% YoY), including 869 million liters of hydrous (-33.4% YoY) and 713 million liters of anhydrous (-13.5% YoY).
CS Brazil: according to DATAGRO estimates, as of April 1st, stocks would be sufficient to supply the domestic market for 14 days in the case of hydrous (-8 days YoY) and 17 days for anhydrous (-8 days YoY).
CS Brazil: lower stock levels helped sustain producer ethanol prices at the end of the season, with hydrous and anhydrous prices rising 7.9% and 7.5% YoY, respectively.
CS Brazil: the early start of the 26/27 crop and a more ethanol-oriented mix accelerated stock rebuilding, leading to a rapid decline in prices despite still-cautious demand.
CS Brazil: ethanol stocks in the region reached 1.618 billion liters on April 16th (-1.2% YoY), including 992 million liters of hydrous (+0.1% YoY) and 626 million liters of anhydrous (-3.3% YoY).
Brazil: hydrous ethanol prices at the pump remained competitive versus gasoline in Mato Grosso (67.11%), Mato Grosso do Sul (66.97%), Paraná (67.60%) and São Paulo (65.20%) last week. Together, these states account for 38.4% of Otto-cycle fuel consumption in 2026.
Brazil: hydrous ethanol prices to consumers declined in 23 of 27 states, bringing the national average down to R$ 4.56/liter last week. In São Paulo, the average price fell 3.2% to R$ 4.29/liter.
Indonesia imported 304 k mt of sugar in March (+33.8% YoY), totaling 835 k mt in 1Q26 (+9.8% YoY).
Thailand led as the main sugar supplier to Indonesia in 1Q26, with 633 k mt (75.8% of the total), followed by Australia (19.9%) and Brazil (4.0%).
Agenda para hoje
● DATAGRO Sugar Line-up.
● EIA Weekly Petroleum Report.