Analysis DATAGRO
NY raw sugar market rose for the fourth consecutive session, driven by the global macroeconomic backdrop, with May 2026 gaining 57 points to US$ 15.37 c/lb, the highest level for the front-month since October 2025.
Energy market: escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed Brent to around US$ 115/bbl, increasing the geopolitical risk premium following attacks on energy infrastructure in the region.
Brazil: gasoline prices at Petrobras refineries are about 37% below import parity, while diesel shows a lag close to 30%.
CS Brazil: ethanol market for producers remains at a slow pace, with fewer active participants, low liquidity, and historically low stocks, providing support to prices.
CS Brazil: hydrous ethanol prices for producers in SP reached R$ 2.9925/liter on Thursday (+0.3% WoW), while anhydrous ethanol prices rose 2.1% over the same period to R$ 3.2978/liter, both ex-mill and net of taxes, according to DATAGRO PRA.
CS Brazil: hydrous ethanol CIF price in Paulínia (SP) reached R$ 3.0516/liter (+0.8% WoW), net of taxes, according to DATAGRO PRA.
CS Brazil: hydrous ethanol stocks held by mills reached 1.827 billion liters as of February 28th (-22.1% YoY). According to DATAGRO estimates, this level would be enough to meet domestic demand for 33 days.
CS Brazil: anhydrous ethanol stocks held by mills reached 1.438 billion liters as of February 28th (-19.3% YoY). According to DATAGRO estimates, this level would be enough to meet domestic market for 37 days.
Mexico: as of March 14th, 28.20 mmt of cane had been crushed in the 25/26 crop (-1.9% YoY), resulting in sugar production of 2.96 mmt (+2.2% YoY).
European Union: sugar imports totaled 261 k mt between October 2025 and February 2026 (+71.7% YoY), with South Africa (14%), Colombia (13%) and Mauritius (12%) as the main origins.
European Union: sugar stocks reached 13.458 mmt as of January 31st (+8.8% YoY), keeping the market well supplied and pressuring prices, despite a decline in beet area.
European Union: average white sugar price stood at EUR 516/mt in January (-7.7% YoY), the lowest level since September 2022.
Agenda para hoje
● CFTC.