Morning Call Mar 18th, 2026

NY raw sugar market moved higher again, with May 2026 rising 26 points to US$ 14.45 c/lb, supported by higher oil prices and the weaker U.S. dollar against the Brazilian real amid developments in the Middle East conflict.
 

Brazil: market participants remain focused on the energy market and expectations of a gasoline price adjustment by Petrobras, whose refinery prices are nearly 35% below import parity.
 

Thailand: cane crushing in the 25/26 crop continues at a strong pace, reaching 85.41 mmt as of March 8th (-1.0% YoY), with 56 mills in operation, slightly above the 54 units observed a year earlier.
 

Thailand: industrial yield has recovered, reaching 110.57 kg sugar/tc (+2.4% YoY) as of March 8th, lifting sugar production to 9.44 mmt (+1.4% YoY) over the same period.
 

Thailand: recent isolated rainfall brought volumes of up to 30 mm over cane areas, with forecasts indicating between 20 mm and 30 mm for the coming week, with no relevant impact on crushing pace so far.
 

Thailand: despite the initial delay, mills may extend crushing through the end of April to mitigate losses, depending on the continuation of favorable weather conditions.
 

Thailand: for the 25/26 crop, DATAGRO projects cane crushing at 98.0 mmt and sugar production at 10.58 mmt, above the 92.0 mmt and 10.05 mmt recorded in the previous crop.
 

U.S. ethanol exports reached 810 million liters in January 2026, a record for the month and up 6.0% YoY, according to the United States International Trade Commission (USITC).
 

U.S.: Canada was the main destination of U.S. ethanol with 265 million liters (32.8%), followed by Brazil with 138 million (17.0%) and Netherlands with 126 million (15.6%).
 

U.S. ethanol imports totaled 28 million liters in January (-58.5% YoY), with Canada accounting for 55.4% of the total.
 

India: sugar exports in the 25/26 crop (Oct/Nov) totaled 315 k mt through February, with the United Arab Emirates as the main destination.
 

India: given the slower pace of shipments and a tighter domestic balance, the country is expected to export around 800 k mt of sugar in this crop.