Morning Call Jun 30th, 2026

NY raw sugar market extended its recovery on Monday, with July 2026 rising 31 points to US$ 14.29 c/lb, returning to trade above the US$ 14.00 c/lb level.
 

NY prices recovery reflects the incorporation of a weather risk premium, amid concerns over the heatwave in Europe, weak monsoon performance in India, and excessive rainfall in Center-South Brazil.
 

CS Brazil: despite crushing disruptions caused by rainfall, the large volume of cane still remaining in the fields continues to limit the risk of an effective supply loss for now, constraining a more significant upside in sugar prices.
 

White sugar premium Aug/Oct 2026 reached US$ 147.76/mt, supporting refined sugar demand and increasing the attractiveness of toll refining operations.
 

Oil: the recent decline in oil prices, driven by the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the reduction of the Middle East risk premium, continues to limit additional gains in sugar prices.
 

Australia: cumulative cane crushing for the 26/27 crop reached 1.064 mmt through June 14th (+1.9% YoY), while raw sugar production totaled 146 k mt (+13.2% YoY).
 

Australia: the Australian Sugar Milling Council lowered its 26/27 crop cane crushing forecast from 30.24 mmt to 30.04 mmt, a volume still 5.2% above the previous season.
 

Philippines: the SRA banned imports of sugar, molasses, and cane derivatives intended for ethanol production, restricting the use of imported feedstock without specific authorization.
 

Mexico: cumulative cane crushing for the 25/26 crop reached 49.1 mmt through June 20th (+7.7% YoY), while sugar production totaled 5.29 mmt (+11.0% YoY).
 

Mexico: agricultural yields reached 67.71 mt/ha (+8.9% YoY), while 10 of the country's 47 mills remain in operation, compared to only three mills operating during the same period of the 24/25 crop.
 

Mexico exported 160 k mt of sugar in May (-24.6% YoY), bringing cumulative exports in the 25/26 crop to 938 k mt (+7.0%).