Morning Call Jun 25th, 2026

NY July 2026 raw sugar settled unchanged on Wednesday at US$ 13.42 c/lb, accumulating a 43-point decline WoW, while October 2026 gained 7 points, widening the Jul/Oct spread to 60 points.
 

NY #11: the combination of weak international demand and a large surplus in the global sugar Trade Flow continues to limit any more meaningful short-term price recovery.
 

El Niño: concerns surrounding the phenomenon remain on the market's radar, although any more significant impact on global sugar production is expected to materialize only from January 2027 onward.
 

India: monsoon continues to advance at a slower-than-normal pace, running about five days behind the historical average, despite expectations for heavier rainfall and nationwide coverage by early July.
 

Southeast Asia: forecasts point to improving weather conditions in the coming days, with rainfall accumulations potentially exceeding 100 mm in sugar-producing areas of both Thailand and Indonesia.
 

Oil: reflecting reduced supply concerns following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Brent August 2026 fell to US$ 73.74/bbl (-4.3%), its lowest level since February 27th.
 

Brazil: according to DATAGRO estimates, gasoline prices are currently 23.0% below import parity, while diesel prices show a 24.0% discount relative to the same benchmark.
 

Brazil: sugar shipment nominations declined from 44 to 43 ships this week, carrying a combined cargo of 1.803 mmt (+1.1% YoY). China remained the main destination with 473 k mt (26.2% of the total), followed by Algeria (8.7%) and Indonesia (5.0%), according to the DATAGRO Line-up.
 

Brazil: waiting time for berth at CLI 16/17 terminal, Santos port, fell from 15 to 9 days, compared to 12 days in the same period last year.
 

Brazil: sugar exports reached 2.207 mmt through the third week of June, with average daily shipments of 158 k mt (-6.4% YoY), according to SECEX data.
 

U.S. ethanol production declined 1.1% last week to 1.090 mbpd (+0.8% YoY), while inventories increased 0.5% to 24.585 million barrels (+0.7% YoY).
 

U.S. gasoline demand fell 4.7% last week to 8.775 mbpd (-9.4% YoY).
 

Philippines: cane crushing in the 25/26 crop reached 22.88 mmt through June 7th (-8.5% YoY), while raw sugar production totaled 1.83 mmt (-8.9% YoY).