Analysis DATAGRO
NY raw sugar prices moved lower again, with July 2026 dropping 26 points to US$ 13.59 c/lb, the lowest front-month level since April 23rd. In addition to bearish fundamentals, the market reflected pressure from the macroeconomic environment.
U.S. dollar strengthened against the Brazilian Real, rising to R$ 5.1607/US$ Ptax, up 1.9% on the day, reflected investor repositioning following Bacen’s decision to cut interest rates and the Fed's more cautious stance.
Crude oil prices continued to trend lower, pressured by expectations of higher global supply amid the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the easing of sanctions imposed on Iran.
Oil: although the normalization of export flows through the Persian Gulf still depends on operational adjustments, the market is already pricing in a gradual recovery in regional supply, reducing the geopolitical risk premium.
CS Brazil: ethanol stocks held by mills reached 3.419 billion liters on June 1st (+63.2% YoY), including 2.298 billion liters of hydrous ethanol (+74.6% YoY) and 1.120 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol (+43.9% YoY), according to MAPA.
CS Brazil: according to DATAGRO estimates, until June 1st, ethanol stocks would be sufficient to supply the domestic market for 37 days in the case of hydrous ethanol (+15 days YoY) and 28 days for anhydrous ethanol (+5 days YoY).
NNE Brazil: cane crushing reached 380 k mt during 2H May (+15.0% YoY), bringing cumulative 25/26 crop crushing to 49.33 mmt (-0.7% YoY).
NNE Brazil: influenced by the lower allocation of cane to sugar production and reduced TRS levels, cumulative sugar production reached 2.94 mmt through June 1st (-15.0% YoY).
Philippines: cumulative 25/26 crop cane crushing reached 22.78 mmt through May 31st (-7.9% YoY), while raw sugar production totaled 1.82 mmt (-8.4% YoY).
Agenda para hoje
● CFTC.