Analysis DATAGRO
NY raw sugar market continues to show no consistent recovery, with July 2026 rising 14 points to US$ 13.82 c/lb. Despite concerns over the potential impacts of El Niño, the prevailing perception remains one of a large surplus in the global Trade Flow, supported by weak demand.
China: sugar production in the 25/26 crop is expected to reach 12.80 mmt (+15.2% YoY), while domestic consumption is projected to decline to 15.50 mmt, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.
China: amid greater domestic supply, DATAGRO lowered its forecast for Chinese sugar imports in 25/26 from 5.00 mmt to 4.40 mmt. For 26/27, imports could decline further to just 4.00 mmt.
China: sugar production in the 26/27 crop could reach a record 12.93 mmt, driven by expanding cane and beet acreage, as well as productivity gains.
China: increasing domestic production is part of the government's long-term strategy to reduce dependence on imported food products, while changes in consumption habits are also limiting growth in sugar demand.
Brazil: rainfall recorded over the weekend disrupted cane crushing operations in key Center-South micro-regions, where accumulated precipitation exceeded 100 mm over the last five days.
Brazil: according to DATAGRO monitoring, rainfall in Center-South Brazil resulted in approximately 2.0 days lost of crushing time, above the ten-year average of 1.4 day for the period.
Brazil: despite the impacts on harvesting operations, rainfall contributed to the recovery of soil moisture across part of the region's cane-growing areas.
Brazil: a new cold front expected to affect Center-South Brazil from June 22nd onward may cause additional disruptions to crushing operations in areas of Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo.
India: low water availability led the Maharashtra government to restrict water use for irrigation, with the state's reservoirs currently operating at 24.4% capacity.
India: in some areas, the restrictions already threaten around 1 mmt of cane, while additional limits on river water pumping are increasing pressure on producers.
India: during 1H June, rainfall totaled 42.4 mm, 32% below historical average for the period, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Agenda para hoje
● DATAGRO Sugar Line-up.
● EIA Weekly Petroleum Report.