Analysis DATAGRO
NY raw sugar market extended its losses on Thursday, with July 2026 dropping 13 points to US$ 13.79 c/lb, accumulating a decline of 48 points over the last five trading sessions.
NY #11: the July/October spread widened from 47 to 55 points of carry, reflecting the comfortable short-term surplus in the global Trade Flow, supported by sugar availability from exporting origins.
El Niño: NOAA significantly increased the probability of a very strong El Niño event, raising it from 37% to 63%.
El Niño: after three consecutive weeks with anomalies near +0.5°C, the threshold that characterizes the onset of the phenomenon, the first week of June registered further warming, with SST reaching +0.7°C.
El Niño: forecast models indicate that peak warming is expected between October and December, with anomalies ranging from +1.8°C to +2.3°C. Should temperatures exceed +2.0°C, this would become the sixth Super El Niño event since 1950.
U.S. ethanol exports totaled 672 million liters in April (-0.9% YoY), reaching 3.130 billion liters year-to-date (+14.7% YoY), a new record for the period, according to the USITC.
U.S.: Canada remains the largest buyer of U.S. ethanol in 2026, with 1.028 billion liters (32.8%), followed by the Netherlands (17.4%) and Brazil (8.7%).
U.S.: USDA revised upward its estimate for sugar production in the 26/27 crop, from 7.992 mmt to 8.222 mmt, raw value, although still below the 8.367 mmt recorded in 25/26.
U.S.: on the demand side, USDA raised its 26/27 consumption estimate from 11.239 mmt to 11.353 mmt, which nevertheless did not prevent an improvement in the supply outlook.
U.S.: as a result, stocks-to-use ratio was revised upward from 13.5% to 14.3% in the 26/27 crop, although it remains below the 15.9% observed in 25/26.
Mexico: the USDA slightly increased its estimate for sugar production in the 26/27 crop (Nov/Oct), from 5.142 mmt to 5.283 mmt, raw value.
Mexico: in line with greater product availability, the agency raised its forecast for Mexican sugar exports from 895 k mt to 1.063 mmt.
Agenda para hoje
● CFTC.