Analysis DATAGRO

NY raw sugar market remained subdued, extending its downward trend throughout the week. July 2026 fell another 13 points on Friday, settling at US$ 14.14 c/lb, just 10 points above last week's level.

NY #11: the strong start to the 26/27 crop in Center-South Brazil continues to more than offset support from white sugar premiums, maintaining pressure on the physical market.

White sugar premiums remained firm, with the Aug/Jul premium rising 5.4% to US$ 135.17/mt and the Oct/Oct premium increasing 4.3% to US$ 118.66/mt, as the ongoing hostilities in the Persian Gulf region continues to disrupt trade flows.

CFTC: funds and small specs increased their net short position in the NY raw sugar market from 111,538 lots on May 26th to 135,104 lots on June 2nd.

CS Brazil: ethanol market for producers remained illiquid. Demand continues to push for lower prices amid increasing supply, while some mills have accepted lower offers to strengthen cash flow.

CS Brazil: last Friday, hydrous ethanol for producers in São Paulo traded at R$ 2.2132/liter, up 0.9% WoW, while anhydrous ethanol traded at R$ 2.5272/liter, down 2.0% WoW, both ex-mill, net of taxes.

CS Brazil: in Paulínia (SP), CIF price of hydrous ethanol settled the week at R$ 2.3816/liter net of taxes, up 1.3% during the period, according to DATAGRO Price Reporting Agency (PRA).

CS Brazil: the export parity price for VHP sugar is estimated by DATAGRO at US$ 14.54 c/lb FOB Santos, remaining 49 points above the remuneration of hydrous ethanol in São Paulo.

CS Brazil: ethanol stocks held by mills in the region reached 2.895 billion liters on May 16th (+72.7% YoY), consisting of 1.975 billion liters of hydrous ethanol (+79.9% YoY) and 920 million liters of anhydrous ethanol (+59.0% YoY).

CS Brazil: according to DATAGRO estimates, until May 16th, ethanol stocks would be sufficient to supply the domestic market for 32 days in the case of hydrous ethanol (+13 days YoY) and 23 days for anhydrous ethanol (+7 days YoY).

Guatemala: 25/26 crop officially completed on May 24th, with cane crushing reaching 26.7 mmt (+6.6%) and sugar production totaling 2.814 mmt (+11.0% – DATAGRO estimate was 2.79 mmt).
Agenda para hoje
● DATAGRO World Sugar & Ethanol Weekly Review.
● DATAGRO Fuel Prices Report.