Analysis DATAGRO
NY raw sugar market started the week on a recovery note, with July 2026 advancing 39 points this Monday to US$ 14.45 c/lb, supported by short-covering following the IMD’s downward revision of India’s monsoon rainfall forecast.
El Niño: the IMD revised India’s monsoon forecast down from 92% to 90% of the historical average, reinforcing concerns over the potential impact of El Niño on Cane fields.
CS Brazil: cane crushing in the region reached 42.35 mmt in 1H May (+1.4% YoY), according to MAPA, bringing the cumulative total since April 1st to 104.87 mmt (+33.8% YoY).
CS Brazil: industrial yield increased 4.4% to 123.71 kg TRS/mt in 1H May, while sugar production mix declined 9.3 p.p. YoY to 42.4% during the period.
CS Brazil: sugar production totaled 2.116 mmt in 1H May (+13.2% YoY), reaching 4.620 mmt cumulatively since April 1st (+12.3% YoY).
CS Brazil: total ethanol production increased 46.7% YoY to 5.557 billion liters cumulatively since April 1st, of which 1.150 billion liters came from corn (+7.4% YoY).
Brazil: last week, hydrous ethanol pump prices remained competitive against gasoline in eight states, which together account for 60.5% of Brazil’s Otto-cycle fuel market in 2026, versus 49.6% one year ago.
Brazil: among the country’s 27 states, 21 recorded declines in consumer ethanol prices, bringing the national average down to R$ 4.22/liter (-1.2% WoW).
Mexico: until May 23rd, cane crushing reached 47.1 mmt in the cumulative 25/26 crop (+5.0% YoY), while sugar production totaled 5.1 mmt (+8.4% YoY).
Pakistan: the PSMA renewed pressure on the government to authorize a sugar export quota, citing a domestic surplus of around 1.3 mmt and arguing that the measure would help reduce inventories, strengthen mills’ cash flow, and increase foreign exchange inflows.
Agenda para hoje
● DATAGRO World Market + Crop Survey Call at 11:00 am (BRA Time).
● DATAGRO World Market + Crop Survey Call, Portuguese version, at 02:00 pm (BRA Time).