Analysis DATAGRO
NY #11: NY raw sugar settled slightly lower on Thursday, with October 2026 dropping 7 points to US$ 14.43 c/lb, pressured by expectations of a large global Trade Flow surplus and weak international demand.
NNE Brazil: the 26/27 crop is expected to start earlier than the previous season, supported by lower rainfall since June and the return to the normal crushing calendar.
NNE Brazil: above-average rainfall between 2H25 and 1H26 favored cane development, reinforcing expectations of higher agricultural yields and TRS.
NNE Brazil: influence of El Niño reduced rains in July, with the RRI running 58.4% below the level recorded a year earlier, improving conditions for harvesting and crushing activities.
NNE Brazil: production mix is expected to shift further toward ethanol, supported by depressed international sugar prices and the new tax incentive for anhydrous ethanol production in the state of Paraíba.
NNE Brazil: DATAGRO projects cane crushing at 57.0 mmt in the 26/27 season, with sugar production reaching 3.22 mmt and ethanol output totaling 3.94 billion liters, supported by greater cane availability and favorable weather conditions.
CS Brazil: ethanol market for producers remains under pressure, with mills restricting supply while waiting for better prices, whereas well-supplied distributors continue to make only spot purchases, reinforcing expectations of further price declines.
CS Brazil: hydrous ethanol prices in São Paulo reached R$ 2.0440/liter (-1.3% WoW; -22.1% YoY), while anhydrous ethanol settled at R$ 2.3602/liter (-1.1% WoW; -20.2% YoY), both ex-mill and net of taxes, according to DATAGRO PRA.
CS Brazil: in Paulínia (SP), CIF hydrous ethanol prices reached R$ 2.1250/liter, net of taxes, down 3.3% WoW and 22.6% YoY, according to DATAGRO PRA.
Brazil: according to DATAGRO estimates, gasoline prices at Petrobras refineries are 30.7% below import parity, while diesel prices remain 14.2% below parity.
Brazil: including the federal subsidy, the discounts relative to import parity widen to 40.6% for gasoline and 35.8% for diesel.
Russia: the government has extended the ban on diesel and gasoline exports through January 31st, 2027, from the previous expiration date of July 31st, 2026.
Agenda para hoje
● CFTC.