Morning Call Jul 30th, 2026

NY #11: NY raw sugar market continued to trade without a clear direction, with October 2026 declining 5 points to US$ 14.50 c/lb, as the market remained focused on weather conditions in CS Brazil and the progress of the monsoon across Southeast Asia.
 

India: although the monsoon has now covered the entire country, cane fields have received 373.3 mm of rainfall between June and July, 16.8% below normal, with persistent deficits across the main producing regions.
 

India: rainfall performance has improved throughout the season – after June ended with a 40.4% deficit, July precipitation has been virtually in line with the historical average (deficit of just 1.3%).
 

Thailand: conditions remain favorable for cane, with cumulative rainfall of 298.6 mm between June and July, 5.8% above normal, while more than 100 mm of additional rainfall is forecast over the coming days.
 

El Niño: phenomenon remains at a moderate intensity and continues to strengthen, reinforcing expectations of below-average rainfall in India and near-normal precipitation in Thailand, with the potential to evolve into a Super El Niño during 4Q26.
 

Argentina: ethanol production reached 113 million liters in June (-0.4% YoY), lifting first-half 2026 output to a record 592 million liters (+1.0% YoY).
 

Brazil: sugar shipment nominations declined this week from 40 to 31 vessels, with a combined cargo of 1.495 mmt (-48.9% YoY). The main destinations include India (14.4%), Bangladesh (8.4%), and Algeria (8.1%), according to the DATAGRO Line-up.
 

Brazil: waiting time for berthing at CLI 16/17 terminal, at Santos port, remained stable at 1 day, well below the 13 days recorded in the same period last year.
 

Brazil: ethanol cabotage operations regained momentum in July, reaching 71 million liters, nearly seven times higher than a year earlier. Despite the recovery, cumulative volumes in 2026 remain 34.0% below the same period of 2025, according to the DATAGRO Line-up.
 

U.S.: ethanol production increased 3.6% last week to 1.196 mbpd (+4.8% YoY). Meanwhile, ethanol inventories rose 1.0% WoW to 24.726 million barrels (+0.2% YoY).
 

U.S.: gasoline demand increased 1.1% WoW to 9.041 mbpd, remaining virtually unchanged from the same period last year.