Morning Call Jul 29th, 2026

NY #11: October 2026 edged down just 3 points to US$ 14.55 c/lb, bringing weekly losses to 33 points. Across the forward curve, declines were limited to a maximum of 8 points, reflecting the lack of fresh fundamental developments and the stronger influence of the oil market.
 

NY #11: fundamentals remain predominantly bearish, supported by the strong pace of cane crushing in CS Brazil, expectations of a global Trade Flow surplus through at least 2Q27, and sluggish demand.
 

NY #11: weather-related risks continue to prevent a sharper correction, amid concerns over El Niño in India, heatwaves across Europe, and reduced planted area in the European Union and Thailand.
 

Oil: market extended the previous session's losses on optimism surrounding negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, marking four consecutive days without attacks.
 

Oil: President Donald Trump said there is a "good chance" of progress in the negotiations, reinforcing expectations of a gradual normalization of oil flows through the region.
 

Oil: Brent September 2026 settled at US$ 84.09/bbl, down 4.8% on the day, its lowest level since July 13th, although it still posted a 15.3% gain for the month.
 

Australia: cane crushing in the 26/27 season reached 6.279 mmt through July 19th (-4.8% YoY), while raw sugar production totaled 873.3 k mt (+3.9% YoY).
 

Russia: first mills began processing the 26/27 crop late last week in the Krasnodar region, with nine mills in operation by the end of July.
 

Russia: another 30 mills are expected to begin operations in August, with all sugar refineries projected to be processing the new crop by September.
 

Thailand: sugar exports totaled 1.023 mmt in June (+90.0% YoY), reaching 3.814 mmt in the 25/26 season to date (+2.3% YoY).
 

Thailand: Indonesia remained the leading destination for Thai sugar in the 25/26 season to date, importing 1.183 mmt (31.0%), followed by Malaysia (10.4%) and Cambodia (8.3%).
 

Thailand: below-average rainfall is expected across the eastern region in early August, while precipitation in the rest of the country is forecast to remain close to normal climatological levels.