Morning Call Jul 28th, 2026

NY#11: October 2026 closed at US$ 14.58 c/lb, down 19 points, pressured by the sharp decline in oil prices and the perception that the impact of recent rainfall on the CS Brazil crop was less severe than the market had expected.
 

CS Brazil: rainfall over the past weekend caused 2 to 4 days of harvesting interruptions, with Paraná and the Bauru and Ribeirão Preto microregions recording the greatest impacts.
 

CS Brazil: across the region, an average of 1.3 crushing days was lost, above the 10-year average of just 0.1 day for the period.
 

European Union: the European Commission lowered its 26/27 sugar beet yield forecast from 77.7 t/ha to 76.0 t/ha (-6.9% YoY), still in line with the five-year average of 76.2 t/ha.
 

European Union: sugar beet yields in France are expected to decline 9.1% YoY to 81.7 t/ha, 1.2% below the five-year average.
 

European Union: considering both the lower planted area and reduced yields, EU sugar production is unlikely to exceed 14.1 mmt in 26/27, compared with 16.6 mmt in 25/26.
 

Brazil: hydrous ethanol at the pump remained more competitive than gasoline in the Federal District (64.5%) and the states of Acre (68.5%), Amazonas (69.4%), Bahia (67.6%), Goiás (64.0%), Mato Grosso (55.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (60.7%), Minas Gerais (65.0%), Paraná (62.6%), Santa Catarina (69.5%), and São Paulo (58.3%) last week.
 

Brazil: together, these 11 states account for approximately 67.8% of Otto-cycle fuel consumption, compared with 54.1% in the same period last year, when ethanol was competitive in only six states.
 

Brazil: sugar exports totaled 2.63 mmt through the fourth week of July, averaging 146 k mt/day (-6.4% YoY), according to preliminary SECEX data.
 

India: in early August, rainfall is expected to remain below normal across the Central and West Coast regions, while Northern India is likely to receive above-normal precipitation.
 

India: during the following week, negative rainfall anomalies are expected to persist along the West Coast, while the rest of the country should see precipitation close to the climatological average.
 

Mexico: the 25/26 season has ended, with 49.605 mmt of sugarcane crushed (+8.5% YoY), 5.325 mmt of sugar produced (+11.6% YoY), and 11.1 million liters of ethanol produced (+6.7% YoY).