Morning Call Jul 27th, 2026

NY#11: October 2026 settled at US$ 14.77 c/lb, up 8 points on the day, supported by short covering after hitting a one-week low earlier in the session.
 

NY#11: despite the daily gain, the contract posted a weekly loss of 6 points, mainly due to the appreciation of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar over the week.
 

U.S. dollar: on Friday, the exchange rate closed at R$ 5.0666/US$, down 1.0% on the week.
 

CS Brazil: according to DATAGRO estimates, sugar stocks held by producers in the region totaled 3.350 mmt as of July 1, down 18.5% YoY.
 

CFTC: funds and small speculators increased their net short position in the NY raw sugar market from 68,296 contracts on July 14, to 87,072 contracts on July 21.
 

CS Brazil: the cold front that had been affecting southern Brazil moved toward the region, bringing rainfall to key sugarcane areas in Paraná, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paulo between July 23 and 24.
 

CS Brazil: in São Paulo, the Bauru, Presidente Prudente, and Ribeirao Preto microregions recorded the highest rainfall totals, with some locations experiencing isolated hailstorms, and strong headwinds which caused tumbling of extensive areas of cane, rising the perspective of high vegetal and mineral impurities and low industrial yield.
 

CS Brazil: the forecast indicates rainfall returning starting next Thursday (30) and continuing through next weekend, while Mato Grosso and Goiás are expected to remain under dry weather conditions.
 

CS Brazil: the ethanol market in São Paulo ended the week with low liquidity, as some mills withdrew offers at current price levels while distributors limited purchases to inventory replenishment.
 

CS Brazil: hydrous ethanol at producer level in São Paulo averaged R$ 2.0725/liter on Friday, down 1.3% on the week, while anhydrous ethanol fell 1.4% over the same period to R$ 2.3856/liter, both PVU/PVD, net of taxes.
 

CS Brazil: in Paulínia (SP), CIF price of hydrous ethanol declined 1.7% on the week to R$ 2.1970/liter, tax-free, according to the DATAGRO Price Reporting Agency (PRA).
 

CS Brazil: on a raw sugar equivalent basis, hydrous ethanol was quoted at US$ 13.33 c/lb FOB Santos (Ribeirão Preto, SP basis), while export VHP sugar closed at US$ 15.08 c/lb FOB Santos, widening the sugar premium over ethanol to 175 points.
 

Russia: sugar production totaled 55.2 k mt in June, up 75.5% YoY, lifting cumulative 25/26 (Aug/Jul) output to 6.406 mmt, up 0.5% YoY, according to Rossat.
 

Russia: cumulative production has already exceeded Soyuzrossakhar's latest estimate of 6.3 mmt for the 25/26 season.