Analysis DATAGRO
NY #11: the raw sugar market posted another low-volatility session — the October 2026 contract fell 5 points to US$ 14.69 c/lb, remaining within the US$ 14.50–15.00 c/lb range, pressured by the strong crushing pace in CS Brazil and weak ethanol prices, while forecast rainfall offers some support.
Oil: Brent crude surpassed US$ 100/bbl for the first time since May, with the September 2026 contract hitting US$ 100.69/bbl — up 10.6% over the last two sessions — as the U.S.–Iran conflict escalated and Houthi forces announced a blockade of Saudi vessels, rerouting three tankers away from the Red Sea.
Oil: traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to just 15 vessels in the last 24 hours, only 25% of the historical average of 60 ships/day, amplifying risk premiums amid fears of additional Middle East supply restrictions.
Brazil: the new oil price spike widened fuel price gaps at Petrobras refineries, with gasoline 34.7% and diesel 40.9% below import parity, according to DATAGRO. The Federal Government signals it will maintain subsidies of R$ 1.12/liter for diesel and R$ 0.44/liter for gasoline for at least two more months.
NNE Brazil: cane crushing totaled 724 k mt in the 2nd half of June, down 4.2% YoY, bringing cumulative 25/26 (Sep/Aug) crushing to 50.68 mmt (-0.6% YoY). Sugar mix fell 3.9 p.p. to 48.98%, industrial yield dropped 7.6% to 125.39 kg ATR/tc, and cumulative sugar production reached 2.97 mmt through July 1 (-14.9% YoY).
USA: USTR maintained the 26/27 (Oct/Sep) raw sugar tariff-rate quota at 1.117 mmt raw value — unchanged from 25/26. Brazil's initial allocation was cut 35.9% to 100 k mt, making it the only country to see its quota reduced. The remaining 55,993 mt will be redistributed before October 1, adding uncertainty for North-Northeast Brazilian exporters.
Mexico: sugar exports totaled 74.6 k mt in June, up 6.1% YoY. Cumulative 25/26 (Oct/Sep) exports through June reached 1.013 mmt (+7.0% YoY). Exports to the U.S. and Puerto Rico plunged 64.5% to just 5.9 k mt in June.
Agenda para hoje
● CFTC.