Morning Call Jul 23rd, 2026

NY #11: October 2026 fell 14 points to US$ 14.74 c/lb, remaining within the US$ 14.50–15.00 c/lb range seen in recent weeks as the market continues to be weighed down by the strong crushing pace in CS Brazil and falling ethanol prices — though forecast rainfall in the coming days could trigger fresh field operation disruptions.
 

CS Brazil: ethanol stocks managed by mills in the region reached 4.125 billion liters on July 1 (+38.6% YoY).
 

CS Brazil: hydrous ethanol stocks totaled 2.706 billion liters (+52.8% YoY), sufficient to supply the domestic market for 44 days, compared to 32 days a year earlier, according to DATAGRO estimates.
 

CS Brazil: anhydrous ethanol stocks reached 1.419 billion liters (+17.9% YoY), sufficient to supply the domestic market for 37 days, compared to 36 days a year earlier, according to DATAGRO estimate.
 

CS Brazil: should E32 come into effect in August, DATAGRO estimates additional consumption of 620 million liters through March 31, 2027, and 930 million liters on an annualized basis.
 

CS Brazil: the 26/27 crop is expected to register a record ethanol production of 38.7 billion liters, of which 11.4 billion liters will come from corn, reinforcing the high availability of the biofuel during the season.
 

Brazil: sugar shipment nominations steadied at 40 vessels carrying a combined 1.633 mmt, still 35.1% below the volume registered a year ago. Top destinations: Morocco (11.8%, 192 k mt), China (10.2%), and Algeria (9.4%), according to the DATAGRO Line-up.
 

USA: production rose 5.2% WoW to 1.094 mbpd in the week ended July 17 (+1.5% YoY). Despite higher supply, stocks grew only 0.4% WoW to 24.481 million barrels (+0.2% YoY), as gasoline consumption climbed 1.2% to 8.947 mbpd (-0.2% YoY), boosting refinery and blender demand for ethanol.
 

India: rainfall remains irregular and below historical averages in key cane-producing regions. Between July 16–22, average precipitation reached 60.83 mm, 10.9% below normal; cumulative rainfall since June 1 totals 295.4 mm, a 20.5% deficit.
 

India: Karnataka is the hardest hit, with 270 mm of rainfall since June 1st — 26.1% below average — prompting producers to request drought declaration and government support amid low reservoir levels and irrigation restrictions.
 

India: Maharashtra recorded 409 mm since June 1st until July 22nd, 7.6% below its historical average. A continuation of this pattern could limit cane development, particularly in rain-dependent areas.